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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 9, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.

NYI winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:21Shot by Pelech, saved by Akhtyamov
  3. P1 0:22Shot by Cizikas, saved by Akhtyamov
  4. P1 0:33Shot by Holmstrom, saved by Akhtyamov
  5. P1 2:08Goal by Schenn (Ritchie, Horvat)6v5+12 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Mayfield, Soucy, Horvat, Barzal, Ritchie · TOR Rielly, Domi, Myers, Maccelli, Knies

  6. P1 4:02Shot by Horvat, saved by Akhtyamov
  7. P1 4:20Shot by Holmstrom, saved by Akhtyamov
  8. P1 4:50Shot by Pelech, saved by Akhtyamov
  9. P1 4:52Shot by Pageau, saved by Akhtyamov
  10. P1 4:55Goal by Pageau (Shabanov, Pelech)+12 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Pageau, Pelech, DeAngelo, Heineman, Shabanov · TOR Domi, Stecher, Benoit, Maccelli, Knies

  11. P1 5:11Goal by Lorentz, unassisted+12 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Pageau, Mayfield, Soucy, Heineman, Shabanov · TOR Rielly, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson, Haymes

  12. P1 5:37Shot by Cizikas, saved by Akhtyamov
  13. P1 6:51Shot by Lee, saved by Akhtyamov
  14. P1 6:52Shot by Lee, saved by Akhtyamov
  15. P1 7:44Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Sorokin
  16. P1 9:22Shot by Gatcomb, saved by Akhtyamov
  17. P1 9:23Shot by Gatcomb, saved by Akhtyamov
  18. P1 9:24Shot by Gatcomb, saved by Akhtyamov
  19. P1 10:10Shot by Rielly, saved by Sorokin
  20. P1 12:04Shot by Gatcomb, saved by Akhtyamov
  21. P1 12:41Shot by Pelech, saved by Akhtyamov
  22. P1 13:02Shot by Ritchie, saved by Akhtyamov
  23. P1 13:46Shot by Barzal, saved by Akhtyamov
  24. P1 14:20Shot by Mayfield, saved by Akhtyamov
  25. P1 14:38Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Akhtyamov
  26. P1 14:42Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Akhtyamov
  27. P1 18:04Shot by Gatcomb, saved by Akhtyamov
  28. P1 18:50Pezzetta: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Pelech, DeAngelo, Barzal, Ritchie · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, Myers, Pezzetta, Quillan

  29. P1 19:42Shot by Schaefer, saved by Akhtyamov5v4
  30. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:36Ritchie: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Horvat, Barzal, Ritchie, Schaefer · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher

  33. P2 1:34Shot by Nylander, saved by Sorokin4v5
  34. P2 1:57Goal by Cowan (Tavares, Ekman-Larsson)4v5+19 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Pageau, Pelech, Pulock, Holmstrom · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Knies, Cowan

  35. P2 2:20Shot by Haymes, saved by Sorokin
  36. P2 7:08Shot by Cizikas, saved by Akhtyamov
  37. P2 7:13Shot by Schaefer, saved by Akhtyamov
  38. P2 7:48Shot by Barzal, saved by Akhtyamov
  39. P2 9:17Shot by Benoit, saved by Sorokin
  40. P2 9:39Goal by Schaefer (DeAngelo, Palat)+25 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Cizikas, Palat, DeAngelo, Heineman, Schaefer · TOR McCabe, Lorentz, Benoit, Robertson, Haymes

  41. P2 10:57Shot by Tavares, saved by Sorokin
  42. P2 13:54Shot by Holmstrom, saved by Akhtyamov
  43. P2 14:23Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Akhtyamov
  44. P2 15:17Myers: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Pulock, Barzal, Ritchie, Schaefer · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Nylander, Myers, Maccelli

  45. P2 16:29Shot by Barzal, saved by Akhtyamov5v4
  46. P2 16:44Goal by Heineman (Barzal, DeAngelo)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Lee, DeAngelo, Barzal, Heineman, Shabanov · TOR Rielly, Benoit, Knies, Quillan

  47. P2 17:01Robertson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: NYI Palat, Pageau, Pelech, Pulock, Heineman · TOR McCabe, Nylander, Stecher, Robertson, Haymes

  48. P2 17:09Shot by Schenn, saved by Akhtyamov5v4
  49. P2 17:33Shot by Ritchie, saved by Akhtyamov5v4
  50. P2 17:45Shot by Horvat, saved by Akhtyamov5v4
  51. P2 19:26Shot by Ritchie, saved by Akhtyamov
  52. P2 19:56Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Sorokin
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 1:08Shot by Heineman, saved by Akhtyamov
  56. P3 1:09Shot by Shabanov, saved by Akhtyamov
  57. P3 1:13Shot by Pelech, saved by Akhtyamov
  58. P3 1:19Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Akhtyamov
  59. P3 4:37Shot by Heineman, saved by Akhtyamov
  60. P3 9:03Rielly: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: NYI Palat, Mayfield, Pelech, Horvat, Gatcomb · TOR Rielly, Domi, Stecher, Knies, Cowan

  61. P3 9:39Lorentz: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Horvat, Barzal, Ritchie, Schaefer · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher

  62. P3 9:39Ekman-Larsson: Misconduct (10 min)5v3

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Horvat, Barzal, Ritchie, Schaefer · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher

  63. P3 9:51Shot by Barzal, saved by Akhtyamov5v3
  64. P3 10:17Shot by Schenn, saved by Akhtyamov5v3
  65. P3 10:20Goal by Ritchie, unassisted5v3+3 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Horvat, Barzal, Ritchie, Schaefer · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Stecher

  66. P3 12:30Shot by Nylander, saved by Sorokin
  67. P3 13:14Shot by Benoit, saved by Sorokin
  68. P3 14:04Goal by Rielly (Maccelli, Haymes)+2 pts WP

    On ice: NYI Schenn, Mayfield, Soucy, Barzal, Ritchie · TOR Rielly, Lorentz, Stecher, Maccelli, Haymes

  69. P3 16:00Shot by Lorentz, saved by Sorokin
  70. P3 16:10Shot by Domi, saved by Sorokin5v6
  71. P3 16:11Shot by Domi, saved by Sorokin5v6
  72. P3 16:50Shot by Domi, saved by Sorokin5v6
  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. P3 0:00Final