Thu, Apr 9, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 92% of the time.
89%
NYI winsTOR wins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 25:06 | 0.11 | 42.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:53 | 0.24 | 16.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0.01 | 50.3% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:45 | 0.22 | 53.1% | +1.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:39 | 0.39 | 18.8% | +19.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 18:56 | 0.14 | 31.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18:54 | 0.21 | 29.8% | +19.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 17:47 | 0.10 | 31.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:43 | 0.06 | 70.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:52 | 0.09 | 11.0% | +19.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0.01 | 2.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:15 | 0.15 | 49.6% | +11.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0.02 | 60.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 12:47 | 0.14 | 49.6% | +1.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 12:18 | 0.36 | 27.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0.07 | 49.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0.06 | 15.4% | +1.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:24 | 0.00 | 28.9% | 0.0 |
| L | 44 | 39 | 5 | .886 | 5.80 | +0.8 | 56:23 |
New York Islanders
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 24:50 | 0.24 | 81.3% | +24.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21:36 | 0.81 | 40.4% | +13.1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 | 0.00 | 86.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 20:33 | 0.25 | 64.0% | +37.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:50 | 0.34 | 61.2% | +11.9 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18:56 | 0.69 | 40.3% | +11.9 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:52 | 0.16 | 61.9% | +11.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 | 0.18 | 60.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16:24 | 0.49 | 64.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:55 | 0.31 | 84.2% | +13.1 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:31 | 0.79 | 45.6% | +14.8 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0.60 | 90.5% | +11.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0.00 | 37.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:35 | 0.03 | 56.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12:51 | 0.26 | 87.8% | +11.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 12:19 | 0.23 | 72.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0.00 | 69.2% | +24.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:20 | 0.74 | 72.8% | 0.0 |
| W | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 2.37 | −0.6 | 59:32 |