Mon, Apr 13, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 06 | 29 | 01 | 330 |
| TBL | 18 | 211 | 02 | 11 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31DETDavid PerronAssists: J.T. Compher, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:05TBLConor GeekieAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 15:53TBLErik CernakAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 18:03TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 2:56DETMarco KasperAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:16DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:27TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:22TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:36TBLJ.J. Moser: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:19DETAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:28TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Illegal stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kasper – Brandsegg-Nygård9:37
xG 0.29–0.08 (77%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Perron – Compher – Mazur11:05
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:41
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:35
xG 0.31–0.93 (25%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson18:58
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka11:59
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Faulk15:05
xG 0.83–1.31 (39%)attempts 22–17goals 2–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Paul12:24
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Guentzel – Point10:33
xG 0.26–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Goncalves10:35
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Sabourin – Bjorkstrand – Geekie7:47
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 6–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoser – Carlile17:15
xG 0.83–0.63 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Cernak14:12
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg14:33
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 7–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).