Wed, Sep 30, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
40%
9%
9%
42%
TOR winsNYI wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against NYI's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Palmieri–Horvat–Holmstrom | Pageau–Heineman–Eklund | Schenn–Maccelli–Ritchie | Cizikas–Palat–Duclair | Palmieri–Horvat–Heineman | Duclair–Maccelli–Ritchie | Pageau–Holmstrom–Eklund | Schenn–Duclair–Ritchie | Schenn–Cizikas–Palat | Pelech–Schaefer | Pulock–Romanov | DeAngelo–Stanley | Pelech–DeAngelo | DeAngelo–Schaefer | Stanley–Schaefer | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roslovic–Matthews–Marchenko | 0:500.23–0.00 | 3:230.07–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 1:190.08–0.09 | 3:440.08–0.00 | 2:370.18–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:510.14–0.00 | ||||||
| Tavares–Nylander–McKenna | 0:360.00–0.02 | 0:330.00–0.07 | 1:040.00–0.02 | 2:010.00–0.29 | 1:570.00–0.15 | 2:400.08–0.09 | 1:500.00–0.23 | 2:000.00–0.06 | 0:510.00–0.11 | 0:570.00–0.07 | |||||
| Blueger–Duhaime–Groulx | 1:230.05–0.03 | 1:300.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:450.05–0.01 | 0:340.01–0.00 | 1:090.05–0.01 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 1:480.07–0.02 | 1:000.00–0.02 | ||||||
| Sissons–Paul–Cowan | 2:520.09–0.17 | 0:410.05–0.00 | 1:100.07–0.00 | 0:370.09–0.00 | 1:340.02–0.15 | 2:280.14–0.00 | 1:040.29–0.00 | 0:370.07–0.00 | |||||||
| Matthews–Duhaime–Marchenko | 0:470.00–0.08 | 1:130.00–0.08 | |||||||||||||
| Rielly–Raddysh | 1:380.00–0.02 | 2:150.07–0.13 | 0:340.04–0.00 | 2:470.09–0.22 | 1:180.00–0.01 | 0:390.08–0.00 | 2:470.16–0.01 | 3:590.20–0.22 | 1:410.01–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 1:270.00–0.09 | ||||
| Tanev–McCabe | 2:360.14–0.16 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 2:130.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.04 | 1:360.00–0.11 | 0:310.05–0.00 | 1:080.09–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.09 | 3:130.07–0.06 | 3:050.09–0.00 | 1:380.12–0.02 | 0:520.00–0.16 | 1:360.00–0.12 | 0:580.00–0.00 |
| Ekman-Larsson–Stecher | 1:240.23–0.02 | 1:290.22–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.02 | 0:540.00–0.05 | 0:460.14–0.00 | 2:210.00–0.08 | 1:310.13–0.00 | 1:060.22–0.06 | 1:250.07–0.00 | ||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Tanev | 0:360.00–0.01 | ||||||||||||||
| Rielly–Stecher | 0:570.00–0.01 | 0:430.00–0.01 | |||||||||||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Raddysh | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORNYIFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Matthew SchaeferNYI | 27 | 27:45 | 1:02 | 2:25 | 4 | 3 |
 Bo HorvatNYI | 23 | 22:31 | 0:59 | 2:17 | 5 | 2 |
 Chris TanevTOR | 27 | 20:39 | 0:46 | 2:31 | 2 | 6 |
 Darren RaddyshTOR | 20 | 20:36 | 1:02 | 2:04 | 3 | 2 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 26 | 20:19 | 0:47 | 1:39 | 1 | 4 |
 Simon HolmstromNYI | 22 | 20:17 | 0:55 | 2:10 | 1 | 5 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 20 | 20:04 | 1:00 | 2:04 | 2 | 2 |
 Adam PelechNYI | 31 | 19:51 | 0:38 | 1:16 | 1 | 7 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 21 | 19:49 | 0:57 | 1:41 | 3 | 2 |
 Kyle PalmieriNYI | 20 | 18:35 | 0:56 | 2:25 | 5 | 1 |
 Kirill MarchenkoTOR | 20 | 18:16 | 0:55 | 2:08 | 3 | 1 |
 Matias MaccelliNYI | 18 | 17:39 | 0:59 | 2:04 | 4 | 1 |
 William NylanderTOR | 17 | 17:29 | 1:02 | 1:48 | 2 | 0 |
 Tony DeAngeloNYI | 21 | 17:14 | 0:49 | 2:18 | 1 | 0 |
 Alexander RomanovNYI | 21 | 17:09 | 0:49 | 1:46 | 1 | 2 |
 John TavaresTOR | 17 | 16:58 | 1:00 | 1:51 | 4 | 0 |
 Ryan PulockNYI | 25 | 16:27 | 0:39 | 1:16 | 1 | 6 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 24 | 16:05 | 0:40 | 1:32 | 4 | 1 |
 Calum RitchieNYI | 19 | 16:03 | 0:51 | 1:28 | 0 | 1 |
 Nick PaulTOR | 19 | 15:43 | 0:50 | 1:44 | 2 | 2 |
 Gavin McKennaTOR | 16 | 15:32 | 0:58 | 1:39 | 4 | 0 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 24 | 15:30 | 0:39 | 1:06 | 5 | 3 |
 Logan StanleyNYI | 19 | 15:06 | 0:48 | 1:46 | 2 | 3 |
 Jack RoslovicTOR | 19 | 14:53 | 0:47 | 1:37 | 4 | 2 |
 Brandon DuhaimeTOR | 21 | 14:39 | 0:42 | 1:34 | 2 | 5 |
 Brayden SchennNYI | 16 | 14:27 | 0:54 | 1:46 | 2 | 2 |
 Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI | 19 | 13:50 | 0:44 | 1:38 | 2 | 6 |
 Emil HeinemanNYI | 20 | 13:26 | 0:40 | 1:20 | 3 | 2 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 18 | 13:23 | 0:45 | 1:21 | 2 | 2 |
 Teddy BluegerTOR | 17 | 12:32 | 0:44 | 1:29 | 2 | 1 |
 Anthony DuclairNYI | 16 | 12:17 | 0:46 | 1:12 | 1 | 1 |
 Victor EklundNYI | 16 | 11:58 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 1 | 2 |
 Colton SissonsTOR | 16 | 11:22 | 0:43 | 1:32 | 0 | 6 |
 Ondrej PalatNYI | 15 | 10:06 | 0:40 | 0:58 | 2 | 3 |
 Bo GroulxTOR | 13 | 9:49 | 0:45 | 1:26 | 1 | 1 |
 Casey CizikasNYI | 14 | 9:29 | 0:41 | 1:10 | 0 | 4 |