Thu, Oct 1, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 111 | 29 | 00 | 326 |
| SJS | 111 | 28 | 07 | 16 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:20SJSMason MarchmentUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 5:52SJSWill SmithSHAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 10:37SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Luca Cagnoni · Slap, 0.38 xG0–3
- P2 17:10FLAEetu LuostarinenPPAssists: Lars Eller, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 5:01FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Anton Lundell · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 5:18FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:14SJSLuca CagnoniGWGAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:40FLABrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:40SJSJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:35SJSDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:02FLASeth Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 1:55SJSKiefer Sherwood: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:07SJSMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:50FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:33FLAUvis Balinskis: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:33SJSCollin Graf: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:33FLAUvis Balinskis: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:34SJSLuca Cagnoni: Interference2 min
- P2 15:44SJSDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:42FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLuostarinen – Lundell – Vilmanis8:16
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:12
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Imama2:51
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Reinhart – Tkachuk5:58
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Balinskis8:42
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad10:15
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Gudas2:22
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Smith – Celebrini10:34
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Sherwood – Ostapchuk6:43
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Graf – Stenberg10:13
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Chernyshov – Misa7:17
xG 0.14–0.63 (18%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Kesselring12:07
xG 0.43–0.25 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Trouba – Allan12:01
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Cagnoni13:37
xG 0.14–0.80 (15%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).