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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose

Florida Panthers 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.

SJS winsFLA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:41Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid
  3. P1 2:03Shot by Vilmanis, saved by Askarov
  4. P1 2:13Shot by Chernyshov, saved by Schmid
  5. P1 4:03Shot by Marchment, saved by Schmid
  6. P1 4:24Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid
  7. P1 4:50Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid
  8. P1 7:27Shot by Mikkola, saved by Askarov
  9. P1 7:40Tkachuk: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS Trouba, Marchment, Allan, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Barkov, Jones, Reinhart, Mikkola, Tkachuk

  10. P1 7:40Trouba: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS Trouba, Marchment, Allan, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Barkov, Jones, Reinhart, Mikkola, Tkachuk

  11. P1 7:50Shot by Smith, saved by Schmid
  12. P1 8:14Shot by Eller, saved by Askarov
  13. P1 9:38Shot by Kesselring, saved by Schmid
  14. P1 11:35Nurse: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Nurse, Wennberg, Kesselring, Smith, Stenberg · FLA Eller, Jones, Mikkola, Luostarinen, Vilmanis

  15. P1 12:09Shot by Allan, saved by Schmid4v5
  16. P1 12:33Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Askarov4v5
  17. P1 14:09Shot by Marchment, saved by Schmid
  18. P1 14:20Goal by Marchment, unassisted+18 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Marchment, Allan, Cagnoni, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Kulikov, Ekblad, Luostarinen, Lundell, Vilmanis

  19. P1 16:46Shot by Barkov, saved by Askarov
  20. P1 17:52Shot by Toffoli, saved by Schmid
  21. P1 18:41Shot by Balinskis, saved by Askarov
  22. P1 19:02Jones: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Goodrow, Sherwood, Ostapchuk, Cagnoni · FLA Barkov, Jones, Reinhart, Mikkola, Tkachuk

  23. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:17Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid5v4
  26. P2 0:46Shot by Marchment, saved by Schmid5v4
  27. P2 1:55Sherwood: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: SJS Trouba, Sherwood, Allan, Ostapchuk, Graf · FLA Gudas, Barkov, Reinhart, Tkachuk, Balinskis

  28. P2 2:29Shot by Lundell, saved by Askarov4v5
  29. P2 3:12Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Askarov4v5
  30. P2 3:53Shot by Jones, saved by Askarov4v5
  31. P2 5:28Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Askarov4v5
  32. P2 5:52Goal by Smith (Celebrini)4v5+13 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Trouba, Allan, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Ekblad, Bennett, Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Lundell

  33. P2 7:07Marchment: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Nurse, Marchment, Kesselring, Smith, Misa · FLA Gudas, Barkov, Hathaway, Imama, Balinskis

  34. P2 8:24Shot by Reinhart, saved by Askarov4v5
  35. P2 9:50Bennett: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Marchment, Cagnoni, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Eller, Kulikov, Ekblad, Imama, Luostarinen

  36. P2 10:34Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid5v4
  37. P2 10:37Goal by Smith (Celebrini, Cagnoni)5v4+6 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Wennberg, Cagnoni, Smith, Celebrini, Chernyshov · FLA Kulikov, Ekblad, Luostarinen, Lundell

  38. P2 11:53Shot by Reinhart, saved by Askarov
  39. P2 12:12Shot by Jones, saved by Askarov
  40. P2 12:33Balinskis: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Cagnoni, Celebrini, Graf, Stenberg · FLA Eller, Verhaeghe, Jones, Tkachuk, Balinskis

  41. P2 12:33Graf: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Cagnoni, Celebrini, Graf, Stenberg · FLA Eller, Verhaeghe, Jones, Tkachuk, Balinskis

  42. P2 12:33Balinskis: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Cagnoni, Celebrini, Graf, Stenberg · FLA Eller, Verhaeghe, Jones, Tkachuk, Balinskis

  43. P2 12:38Shot by Wennberg, saved by Schmid5v4
  44. P2 13:34Cagnoni: Interference (2 min)5v4

    On ice: SJS Wennberg, Cagnoni, Smith, Celebrini, Chernyshov · FLA Kulikov, Ekblad, Luostarinen, Lundell

  45. P2 14:04Shot by Sherwood, saved by Schmid4v4
  46. P2 15:32Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Askarov4v5
  47. P2 15:44Nurse: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Nurse, Sherwood, Kesselring, Ostapchuk, Cagnoni · FLA Jones, Reinhart, Bennett, Tkachuk, Tkachuk

  48. P2 16:12Shot by Wennberg, saved by Schmid4v5
  49. P2 17:07Shot by Eller, saved by Askarov4v5
  50. P2 17:10Goal by Luostarinen (Eller, Ekblad)4v5+6 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Wennberg, Kesselring, Ostapchuk · FLA Eller, Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Bennett, Luostarinen

  51. P2 17:32Shot by Mikkola, saved by Askarov
  52. P2 0:00Period end
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 0:17Shot by Trouba, saved by Schmid
  55. P3 0:37Shot by Wennberg, saved by Schmid
  56. P3 2:32Shot by Misa, saved by Schmid
  57. P3 5:01Goal by Luostarinen (Kulikov, Lundell)+13 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Orlov, Marchment, Cagnoni, Smith, Celebrini · FLA Kulikov, Gudas, Luostarinen, Lundell, Vilmanis

  58. P3 5:18Goal by Tkachuk (Bennett)+34 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Toffoli, Trouba, Allan, Chernyshov, Misa · FLA Kulikov, Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Bennett, Tkachuk

  59. P3 6:56Shot by Trouba, saved by Schmid
  60. P3 8:01Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Askarov
  61. P3 10:47Shot by Misa, saved by Schmid
  62. P3 15:04Shot by Gudas, saved by Askarov
  63. P3 15:07Shot by Vilmanis, saved by Askarov
  64. P3 15:08Shot by Luostarinen, saved by Askarov
  65. P3 16:30Shot by Bennett, saved by Askarov
  66. P3 17:32Shot by Lundell, saved by Askarov
  67. P3 17:40Shot by Lundell, saved by Askarov
  68. P3 18:40Shot by Orlov, saved by Schmid
  69. P3 19:22Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid
  70. P3 19:42Mikkola: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: SJS Goodrow, Nurse, Sherwood, Kesselring, Ostapchuk · FLA Jones, Mikkola, Tkachuk, Lundell, Vilmanis

  71. P3 0:00Period end5v4
  72. OT 0:00Period start
  73. OT 0:23Shot by Cagnoni, saved by Schmid4v3
  74. OT 0:42Shot by Cagnoni, saved by Schmid4v3
  75. OT 1:38Shot by Celebrini, saved by Schmid4v3
  76. OT 1:44Shot by Misa, saved by Schmid4v4
  77. OT 1:45Shot by Misa, saved by Schmid4v4
  78. OT 3:14Goal by Cagnoni (Smith, Celebrini)3v3+50 pts WP

    On ice: SJS Wennberg, Cagnoni, Smith · FLA Verhaeghe, Jones, Tkachuk

  79. OT 3:14Period end3v3
  80. OT 3:14Final4v4