Fri, Oct 2, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 315 | 29 | 03 | 527 |
| CAR | 011 | 116 | 16 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33WSHAlex TuchAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:33WSHCole HutsonAssists: Ilya Protas, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 14:23WSHAlex TuchGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 1:36WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 16:50CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 16:58WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 10:50CARLogan StankovenAssists: K'Andre Miller, William Carrier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:21CARSean Walker: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:21WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:09CARCharles Alexis Legault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:38WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:57WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:30WSHCole Hutson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:58WSHCole Hutson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:17WSHMartin Fehérváry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:15CARTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:18WSHJustin Sourdif: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:18CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:18CARCharles Alexis Legault: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Protas – Protas8:28
xG 0.66–0.05 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Jenner – Beauvillier – Sourdif9:20
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Tuch – Dubois5:59
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Leonard6:22
xG 0.40–0.73 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Hutson9:18
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Chychrun – Liljegren3:25
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun10:47
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier5:17
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Svechnikov – Stankoven6:10
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Aho – Blake4:08
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Robinson – Svechnikov3:59
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield13:52
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Legault10:37
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Walker – Miller13:35
xG 0.43–1.08 (28%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).