Fri, Oct 2, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 37 | 06 | 420 |
| VGK | 08 | 09 | 313 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Leo Carlsson, Tristan Luneau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:33ANAAlex KillornAssists: Noah Warren, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 2:28ANAJeff MalottAssists: Tim Washe, Jackson LaCombe · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 7:03ANALeo CarlssonGWGAssists: A.J. Greer, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.22 xG4–0
- P3 4:38VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Brett Howden, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 6:07VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:10VGKBraeden BowmanAssists: Victor Olofsson, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:39VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:54ANACutter Gauthier: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:41ANACutter Gauthier: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00VGKRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:38ANANikita Nesterenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Gauthier – Carlsson9:56
xG 0.85–0.39 (69%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke2:22
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Vatrano – Poehling – Nesterenko7:49
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke8:56
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMintyukov – Mitchell15:06
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Hinds – Warren6:23
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- LaCombe – Luneau19:54
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 12–24goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Bowman4:28
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Barbashev – Marner6:01
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stone – Eichel – Howden5:22
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Connelly4:54
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Wotherspoon14:13
xG 0.83–0.59 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 0–3
- Hanifin – Lauzon14:14
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:34
xG 0.74–0.71 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).