Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 14 | 116 | 329 |
| TOR | 010 | 214 | 05 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:33TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:06TORKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:40OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 9:46OTTStephen HallidayGWGAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 6:40OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:01TOREaston Cowan: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:44TORKirill Marchenko: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:48OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TOREaston Cowan: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:52OTTTyler Kleven: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:46TORKirill Marchenko: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:52TORJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:20OTTWilliam Eklund: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Amadio – Stützle2:50
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto7:46
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Zetterlund – Cozens – Eklund6:14
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Hodgson – Halliday4:01
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Matinpalo2:45
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence8:43
xG 0.59–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Chabot – Yakemchuk4:30
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Paul – Cowan6:30
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – McKenna6:09
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Nylander – Matthews – Marchenko2:45
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Matthews – Marchenko8:10
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe12:02
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher11:32
xG 0.80–0.59 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Rielly – Raddysh12:44
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).