Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
35%
49%
TOR winsOTT wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Giroux–Amadio–Pinto | Foegele–Batherson–Stützle | Zetterlund–Cozens–Eklund | Cousins–Hodgson–Halliday | Foegele–Amadio–Stützle | Giroux–Amadio–Stützle | Batherson–Cozens–Eklund | Chabot–Spence | Kleven–Matinpalo | Spence–Kleven | Chabot–Yakemchuk | Kleven–Yakemchuk | Spence–Matinpalo | Chabot–Kleven | Spence–Yakemchuk | Sanderson–Yakemchuk | Chabot–Matinpalo | Sanderson–Matinpalo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roslovic–Matthews–Marchenko | 3:280.05–0.07 | 1:240.00–0.01 | 0:300.16–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:470.12–0.00 | 2:500.00–0.08 | 1:280.08–0.00 | 0:590.12–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.15 | 0:440.05–0.00 | ||||||||
| Sissons–Paul–Cowan | 2:430.55–0.00 | 1:380.02–0.00 | 0:420.03–0.00 | 0:340.04–0.00 | 0:520.32–0.00 | 2:070.12–0.14 | 2:210.02–0.00 | 1:010.37–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Tavares–Nylander–McKenna | 0:380.02–0.00 | 1:320.23–0.02 | 2:450.11–0.08 | 1:410.05–0.27 | 1:420.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:380.02–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.02 | ||||||||||
| Blueger–Duhaime–Groulx | 1:080.03–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:320.04–0.00 | 1:010.03–0.00 | 0:420.04–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:590.00–0.66 | 0:380.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Nylander–Matthews–Marchenko | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:120.22–0.08 | 0:420.22–0.00 | 0:560.01–0.08 | 0:340.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Tavares–Roslovic–McKenna | 0:480.00–0.14 | |||||||||||||||||
| Paul–Roslovic–Cowan | ||||||||||||||||||
| Rielly–Raddysh | 2:440.12–0.06 | 1:310.05–0.03 | 1:500.02–0.00 | 1:440.13–0.00 | 1:460.05–0.41 | 3:100.11–0.28 | 3:030.04–0.00 | 1:570.19–0.15 | 0:480.02–0.00 | 1:050.01–0.00 | 0:530.01–0.08 | 1:020.13–0.00 | ||||||
| Tanev–McCabe | 1:150.00–0.05 | 3:570.37–0.03 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:490.12–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.06 | 1:460.08–0.14 | 1:170.12–0.00 | 1:350.00–0.00 | 1:260.00–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.02 | 0:570.37–0.00 | 1:150.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.02 | ||||
| Ekman-Larsson–Stecher | 3:100.12–0.05 | 0:580.23–0.00 | 2:330.00–0.08 | 1:180.03–0.00 | 0:480.04–0.00 | 3:510.03–0.24 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:450.22–0.00 | 2:270.07–0.20 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:410.02–0.00 | 1:000.23–0.00 | ||||||
| Rielly–Stecher | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.66 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TOROTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Thomas ChabotOTT | 30 | 27:06 | 0:54 | 1:47 | 4 | 4 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 28 | 22:51 | 0:49 | 2:04 | 5 | 5 |
 Darren RaddyshTOR | 25 | 22:46 | 0:55 | 2:18 | 8 | 1 |
 Jordan SpenceOTT | 27 | 22:30 | 0:50 | 1:38 | 1 | 4 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 22 | 21:50 | 1:00 | 2:18 | 8 | 0 |
 Tyler KlevenOTT | 29 | 21:43 | 0:45 | 2:49 | 0 | 7 |
 William NylanderTOR | 21 | 21:25 | 1:01 | 2:18 | 8 | 3 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 28 | 20:27 | 0:44 | 1:26 | 2 | 9 |
 Kirill MarchenkoTOR | 20 | 19:26 | 0:58 | 2:18 | 9 | 1 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 27 | 19:13 | 0:43 | 1:54 | 3 | 8 |
 Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 25 | 18:48 | 0:45 | 1:54 | 0 | 9 |
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 26 | 18:23 | 0:42 | 1:14 | 4 | 2 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 29 | 18:17 | 0:38 | 1:19 | 3 | 12 |
 Troy StecherTOR | 24 | 18:10 | 0:45 | 1:32 | 4 | 4 |
 John TavaresTOR | 20 | 18:03 | 0:54 | 2:18 | 9 | 3 |
 Drake BathersonOTT | 24 | 18:02 | 0:45 | 1:40 | 4 | 1 |
 Carter YakemchukOTT | 24 | 17:50 | 0:45 | 1:50 | 6 | 0 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 25 | 17:45 | 0:43 | 2:05 | 5 | 5 |
 Chris TanevTOR | 27 | 17:28 | 0:39 | 2:03 | 5 | 5 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 25 | 17:08 | 0:41 | 1:30 | 3 | 7 |
 Nick PaulTOR | 23 | 17:03 | 0:44 | 1:34 | 1 | 6 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 20 | 16:17 | 0:49 | 1:25 | 6 | 0 |
 William EklundOTT | 21 | 16:16 | 0:46 | 1:23 | 4 | 1 |
 Jack RoslovicTOR | 20 | 14:49 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 6 | 1 |
 Colton SissonsTOR | 22 | 14:24 | 0:39 | 1:17 | 1 | 7 |
 Warren FoegeleOTT | 21 | 13:01 | 0:37 | 0:56 | 3 | 0 |
 Gavin McKennaTOR | 19 | 12:46 | 0:40 | 1:04 | 6 | 1 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 19 | 12:07 | 0:38 | 1:27 | 0 | 4 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 15 | 12:06 | 0:48 | 1:26 | 2 | 2 |
 Teddy BluegerTOR | 14 | 10:24 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 2 | 1 |
 Stephen HallidayOTT | 13 | 10:07 | 0:47 | 1:17 | 1 | 1 |
 Brandon DuhaimeTOR | 13 | 9:51 | 0:45 | 1:02 | 1 | 1 |
 Bo GroulxTOR | 9 | 7:22 | 0:49 | 1:02 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick CousinsOTT | 11 | 7:21 | 0:40 | 1:16 | 0 | 0 |
 Hayden HodgsonOTT | 7 | 5:10 | 0:44 | 1:15 | 1 | 0 |
 Jake SandersonOTT | 6 | 4:29 | 0:45 | 1:01 | 0 | 0 |