Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
35%
50%
TOR winsOTT wins
Ottawa Senators
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Thomas ChabotD · #72 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 27:06 | 0.16 | 68.9% | +43.1 |
 Tim StützleC · #18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:51 | 0.15 | 33.0% | +26.7 |
 Jordan SpenceD · #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:30 | 0.12 | 51.9% | 0.0 |
 Tyler KlevenD · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:43 | 0.00 | 23.5% | 0.0 |
 Shane PintoC · #12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 20:27 | 0.45 | 66.6% | +16.4 |
 Michael AmadioRW · #22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:13 | 0.37 | 57.3% | +26.7 |
 Nikolas MatinpaloD · #33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:48 | 0.01 | 59.5% | 0.0 |
 Claude GirouxRW · #28 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 18:17 | 0.15 | 43.2% | +42.3 |
 Drake BathersonRW · #19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:02 | 0.20 | 48.0% | 0.0 |
 Carter YakemchukD · #26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 17:50 | 0.07 | 32.7% | 0.0 |
 Dylan CozensC · #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:17 | 0.18 | 13.7% | 0.0 |
 William EklundLW · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:16 | 1.25 | 76.6% | 0.0 |
 Warren FoegeleLW · #37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0.00 | 30.8% | 0.0 |
 Fabian ZetterlundLW · #20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 12:06 | 0.05 | 76.2% | +25.9 |
 Stephen HallidayC · #34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:07 | 0.59 | 65.0% | +25.9 |
 Nick CousinsC · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:21 | 0.00 | 2.7% | 0.0 |
 Hayden HodgsonRW · #42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:10 | 0.10 | 14.3% | 0.0 |
 Jake SandersonD · #85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | 0.00 | 2.3% | 0.0 |
 Linus Ullmark#35 | W | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 3.40 | +1.4 | 60:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:46 | 0.07 | 66.3% | +21.3 |
 Auston MatthewsC · #34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 21:50 | 0.79 | 63.7% | +16.6 |
 William NylanderRW · #88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:25 | 0.62 | 58.8% | +16.6 |
 Kirill MarchenkoRW · #86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 19:26 | 0.26 | 67.4% | +21.3 |
 Morgan RiellyD · #44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 18:23 | 0.02 | 36.3% | +16.6 |
 Troy StecherD · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 18:10 | 0.01 | 36.5% | 0.0 |
 John TavaresC · #91 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 3 | 18:03 | 0.42 | 49.3% | +21.3 |
 Jake McCabeD · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:45 | 0.00 | 70.4% | 0.0 |
 Chris TanevD · #8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 0.00 | 78.2% | 0.0 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0.00 | 64.7% | 0.0 |
 Nick PaulLW · #20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 17:03 | 0.42 | 82.3% | 0.0 |
 Jack RoslovicC · #96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:49 | 0.12 | 45.9% | 0.0 |
 Colton SissonsC · #15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 4 | 14:24 | 0.42 | 70.1% | 0.0 |
 Gavin McKennaLW · #92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 12:46 | 0.13 | 50.5% | 0.0 |
 Easton CowanRW · #53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0.05 | 85.7% | 0.0 |
 Teddy BluegerC · #73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 0.04 | 9.1% | 0.0 |
 Brandon DuhaimeLW · #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:51 | 0.00 | 9.0% | 0.0 |
 Bo GroulxC · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7:22 | 0.03 | 30.6% | 0.0 |
 Sergei Bobrovsky#72 | L | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 3.86 | +0.9 | 58:50 |