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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark
  3. P1 0:48Shot by Spence, saved by Bobrovsky
  4. P1 2:52Shot by Groulx, saved by Ullmark
  5. P1 2:58Shot by Stecher, saved by Ullmark
  6. P1 3:16Shot by Giroux, saved by Bobrovsky
  7. P1 3:35Shot by Pinto, saved by Bobrovsky
  8. P1 4:12Shot by Stützle, saved by Bobrovsky
  9. P1 5:05Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  10. P1 6:31Shot by Pinto, saved by Bobrovsky
  11. P1 10:43Shot by Batherson, saved by Bobrovsky
  12. P1 12:14Shot by Paul, saved by Ullmark
  13. P1 12:15Shot by Paul, saved by Ullmark
  14. P1 12:16Shot by Sissons, saved by Ullmark
  15. P1 12:29Shot by Tavares, saved by Ullmark
  16. P1 16:39Shot by McKenna, saved by Ullmark
  17. P1 18:50Shot by Giroux, saved by Bobrovsky
  18. P1 18:51Goal by Chabot (Giroux, Pinto)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Sissons, Paul, Stecher, Cowan · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Chabot, Pinto, Yakemchuk

  19. P1 18:57Shot by Cozens, saved by Bobrovsky
  20. P1 19:27Shot by Tavares, saved by Ullmark
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:11Shot by Roslovic, saved by Ullmark
  24. P2 0:33Goal by Matthews (Rielly, Nylander)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Raddysh, Roslovic, Matthews · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Chabot, Pinto, Spence

  25. P2 3:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark
  26. P2 3:36Shot by Marchenko, saved by Ullmark
  27. P2 5:52Shot by Spence, saved by Bobrovsky
  28. P2 6:40Giroux: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Blueger, Nylander, Raddysh, Duhaime · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Pinto, Spence, Matinpalo

  29. P2 6:58Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark5v4
  30. P2 7:06Goal by Marchenko (Raddysh, Tavares)5v4+21 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Nylander, Raddysh, Matthews, Marchenko · OTT Amadio, Kleven, Stützle, Matinpalo

  31. P2 8:12Shot by Sissons, saved by Ullmark
  32. P2 8:13Shot by Sissons, saved by Ullmark
  33. P2 8:37Shot by Tavares, saved by Ullmark
  34. P2 10:01Cowan: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Sissons, Paul, Stecher, Cowan · OTT Batherson, Kleven, Stützle, Eklund, Yakemchuk

  35. P2 11:06Shot by McCabe, saved by Ullmark4v5
  36. P2 11:54Shot by Chabot, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  37. P2 12:31Shot by Raddysh, saved by Ullmark
  38. P2 12:40Goal by Amadio (Stützle, Chabot)+27 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Raddysh, McKenna · OTT Foegele, Amadio, Chabot, Spence, Stützle

  39. P2 13:32Shot by Nylander, saved by Ullmark
  40. P2 14:44Marchenko: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Paul, Roslovic, Marchenko · OTT Cousins, Amadio, Chabot, Halliday, Yakemchuk

  41. P2 17:46Shot by Nylander, saved by Ullmark
  42. P2 17:48Stützle: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Matthews, Stecher, Marchenko · OTT Foegele, Amadio, Spence, Kleven, Stützle

  43. P2 18:29Shot by Kleven, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  44. P2 19:29Shot by Roslovic, saved by Ullmark5v4
  45. P2 0:00Cowan: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Rielly, Paul, Cowan, McKenna · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Pinto, Spence, Stützle

  46. P2 0:00Pinto: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Rielly, Paul, Cowan, McKenna · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Pinto, Spence, Stützle

  47. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  48. P3 0:00Period start
  49. P3 0:21Shot by Stützle, saved by Bobrovsky4v4
  50. P3 1:48Shot by Cozens, saved by Bobrovsky4v4
  51. P3 1:49Shot by Eklund, saved by Bobrovsky4v4
  52. P3 2:19Shot by Matinpalo, saved by Bobrovsky
  53. P3 2:52Kleven: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Sissons, Paul, Stecher, McKenna · OTT Batherson, Pinto, Spence, Kleven, Eklund

  54. P3 6:15Shot by Batherson, saved by Bobrovsky
  55. P3 6:29Shot by Halliday, saved by Bobrovsky
  56. P3 6:32Shot by Eklund, saved by Bobrovsky
  57. P3 7:06Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark
  58. P3 7:46Marchenko: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Roslovic, Matthews, Marchenko · OTT Giroux, Amadio, Spence, Kleven, Stützle

  59. P3 7:50Shot by Yakemchuk, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  60. P3 8:55Shot by Eklund, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  61. P3 9:45Shot by Zetterlund, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  62. P3 9:46Goal by Halliday (Zetterlund, Giroux)+26 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Sissons, Paul, Stecher · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Zetterlund, Pinto, Halliday

  63. P3 9:52Roslovic: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Raddysh, Roslovic, Matthews · OTT Foegele, Amadio, Spence, Kleven, Stützle

  64. P3 10:43Shot by Eklund, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  65. P3 11:23Shot by Giroux, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  66. P3 11:39Shot by Pinto, saved by Bobrovsky4v5
  67. P3 13:16Shot by Rielly, saved by Ullmark
  68. P3 13:27Shot by Giroux, saved by Bobrovsky
  69. P3 13:35Shot by Pinto, saved by Bobrovsky
  70. P3 14:17Shot by Sissons, saved by Ullmark
  71. P3 14:20Eklund: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Sissons, Paul, Stecher, Cowan · OTT Chabot, Batherson, Cozens, Eklund, Yakemchuk

  72. P3 17:09Shot by Stecher, saved by Ullmark
  73. P3 18:12Shot by Matthews, saved by Ullmark6v5
  74. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  75. P3 0:00Final6v5