Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 17 | 09 | 121 |
| TBL | 214 | 07 | 19 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousAssists: Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:30TBLConor GeekieGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:04WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Boone Jenner · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 17:55TBLJake GuentzelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:35WSHJustin Sourdif: Holding2 min
- P1 18:02TBLRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P2 2:43WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:54TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:54WSHVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:56TBLPontus Holmberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:56WSHJakob Chychrun: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:32TBLZemgus Girgensons: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:32WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:57TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P3 12:56WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Kyrou – Protas – Protas6:03
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Jenner – Beauvillier – Sourdif6:56
xG 0.16–0.31 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Wilson – Tuch – Dubois8:29
xG 0.22–0.75 (23%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Leonard7:22
xG 0.01–0.74 (1%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Liljegren3:40
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Fehérváry2:25
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Hutson2:36
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Holmberg – Mikheyev8:11
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves9:58
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel7:44
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak5:52
xG 0.93–0.21 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Carlson – Moser12:52
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg3:48
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).