Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
80%
10%
TBL winsWSH wins
Washington Capitals
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Jakob ChychrunD · #6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 27:11 | 0.20 | 33.4% | +13.5 |
 Cole HutsonD · #44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:03 | 0.07 | 35.8% | 0.0 |
 Pierre-Luc DuboisC · #80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 18:34 | 0.07 | 25.6% | 0.0 |
 Martin FehérváryD · #42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0.00 | 20.1% | 0.0 |
 Dylan StromeC · #17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 18:02 | 0.33 | 7.9% | 0.0 |
 Alex TuchRW · #89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 0.50 | 24.7% | 0.0 |
 Tom WilsonRW · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 17:49 | 0.21 | 21.7% | 0.0 |
 Timothy LiljegrenD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 17:11 | 0.06 | 39.9% | 0.0 |
 Vincent DesharnaisD · #73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:25 | 0.01 | 20.7% | 0.0 |
 Aliaksei ProtasLW · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0.00 | 38.7% | 0.0 |
 Boone JennerC · #22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14:57 | 0.21 | 54.9% | +13.5 |
 Jordan KyrouRW · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 14:45 | 0.05 | 36.5% | 0.0 |
 Matt RoyD · #3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0.11 | 19.0% | 0.0 |
 Ryan LeonardRW · #9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:10 | 0.12 | 29.0% | 0.0 |
 Alex OvechkinLW · #8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0.02 | 3.3% | 0.0 |
 Justin SourdifC · #34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12:24 | 0.12 | 31.2% | +13.5 |
 Anthony BeauvillierRW · #72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:37 | 0.16 | 51.8% | 0.0 |
 Ilya ProtasLW · #62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0.00 | 37.5% | 0.0 |
 Charlie Lindgren#79 | L | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 3.59 | +1.6 | 57:36 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 22:46 | 0.30 | 88.2% | +6.4 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 22:07 | 1.20 | 72.3% | +25.5 |
 John CarlsonD · #74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 0.17 | 80.4% | +6.4 |
 Erik CernakD · #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 20:34 | 0.19 | 70.5% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 20:32 | 0.53 | 64.1% | 0.0 |
 J.J. MoserD · #90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 0.15 | 76.7% | 0.0 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 18:18 | 0.67 | 60.4% | +31.9 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:42 | 0.08 | 72.4% | 0.0 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0.00 | 57.6% | 0.0 |
 Gage GoncalvesC · #93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0.00 | 58.4% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0.11 | 77.1% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:27 | 0.18 | 63.8% | 0.0 |
 Ilya MikheyevRW · #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:57 | 0.29 | 69.4% | 0.0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD · #51 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13:47 | 0.14 | 58.4% | +12.6 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 13:34 | 0.14 | 74.6% | 0.0 |
 Emil LillebergD · #78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:30 | 0.09 | 79.6% | 0.0 |
 Conor GeekieC · #94 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:10 | 0.38 | 90.9% | +12.9 |
 Jeffrey VielLW · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 7:34 | 0.09 | 74.8% | 0.0 |
 Andrei Vasilevskiy#88 | W | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 2.25 | +1.2 | 60:00 |