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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Washington Capitals 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Away

Washington Capitals

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.

TBL winsWSH wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:30Shot by Cernak, saved by Lindgren
  3. P1 2:26Goal by D'Astous (Hagel, Guentzel)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Point, Hagel, D'Astous, Lilleberg · WSH Roy, Chychrun, Kyrou, Dubois, Protas

  4. P1 3:15Shot by Point, saved by Lindgren
  5. P1 3:49Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Lindgren
  6. P1 5:24Shot by Dubois, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 6:59Shot by Kucherov, saved by Lindgren
  8. P1 7:21Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren
  9. P1 8:32Shot by Viel, saved by Lindgren
  10. P1 8:35Sourdif: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Viel, Mikheyev, Moser, Geekie · WSH Jenner, Beauvillier, Liljegren, Fehérváry, Sourdif

  11. P1 8:43Shot by Point, saved by Lindgren5v4
  12. P1 8:56Shot by Point, saved by Lindgren5v4
  13. P1 9:10Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren5v4
  14. P1 10:47Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 11:07Shot by Cernak, saved by Lindgren
  16. P1 11:51Shot by Desharnais, saved by Vasilevskiy
  17. P1 12:41Shot by D'Astous, saved by Lindgren
  18. P1 13:09Shot by Jenner, saved by Vasilevskiy
  19. P1 16:30Goal by Geekie (Hagel, Guentzel)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Cernak, Hagel, Geekie · WSH Jenner, Beauvillier, Liljegren, Fehérváry, Sourdif

  20. P1 16:57Shot by Cernak, saved by Lindgren
  21. P1 18:02McDonagh: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Goncalves · WSH Ovechkin, Strome, Desharnais, Leonard, Hutson

  22. P1 19:54Shot by Leonard, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  23. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:39Shot by Wilson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  26. P2 1:53Shot by Kucherov, saved by Lindgren
  27. P2 2:08Shot by Kyrou, saved by Vasilevskiy
  28. P2 2:43Protas: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · WSH Beauvillier, Desharnais, Protas, Hutson, Protas

  29. P2 3:33Shot by Jenner, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  30. P2 7:04Goal by Sourdif (Chychrun, Jenner)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Viel, D'Astous, Goncalves, Lilleberg, Geekie · WSH Jenner, Beauvillier, Roy, Chychrun, Sourdif

  31. P2 7:12Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Lindgren
  32. P2 8:41Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren
  33. P2 9:03Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren
  34. P2 11:34Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren
  35. P2 12:01Shot by D'Astous, saved by Lindgren
  36. P2 12:11Shot by Liljegren, saved by Vasilevskiy
  37. P2 13:50Shot by Cirelli, saved by Lindgren
  38. P2 13:54Lilleberg: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, Lilleberg · WSH Jenner, Beauvillier, Desharnais, Sourdif, Hutson

  39. P2 13:54Desharnais: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, Lilleberg · WSH Jenner, Beauvillier, Desharnais, Sourdif, Hutson

  40. P2 14:56Holmberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Holmberg, Moser · WSH Jenner, Wilson, Roy, Chychrun, Sourdif

  41. P2 14:56Chychrun: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Holmberg, Moser · WSH Jenner, Wilson, Roy, Chychrun, Sourdif

  42. P2 17:50Shot by Jenner, saved by Vasilevskiy
  43. P2 17:53Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Vasilevskiy
  44. P2 0:00Period end
  45. P3 0:00Period start
  46. P3 0:32Girgensons: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg, Mikheyev · WSH Wilson, Tuch, Chychrun, Dubois, Liljegren

  47. P3 0:32Wilson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Girgensons, Cernak, Holmberg, Mikheyev · WSH Wilson, Tuch, Chychrun, Dubois, Liljegren

  48. P3 0:45Shot by Kucherov, saved by Lindgren4v4
  49. P3 1:31Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Lindgren4v4
  50. P3 2:07Shot by Hutson, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  51. P3 2:34Shot by Hedman, saved by Lindgren
  52. P3 4:42Shot by Leonard, saved by Vasilevskiy
  53. P3 5:12Shot by Chychrun, saved by Vasilevskiy
  54. P3 5:45Shot by Chychrun, saved by Vasilevskiy
  55. P3 6:04Shot by Hagel, saved by Lindgren
  56. P3 8:01Shot by Cernak, saved by Lindgren
  57. P3 8:57Point: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Goncalves, Moser · WSH Ovechkin, Strome, Chychrun, Kyrou, Fehérváry, Leonard

  58. P3 10:50Shot by Wilson, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  59. P3 11:08Shot by Guentzel, saved by Lindgren
  60. P3 11:49Shot by Geekie, saved by Lindgren
  61. P3 12:56Fehérváry: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Mikheyev, Moser · WSH Ovechkin, Fehérváry, Protas, Hutson, Protas

  62. P3 15:27Shot by Girgensons, saved by Lindgren
  63. P3 17:55Goal by Guentzel (Kucherov, Carlson)5v6+6 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Moser · WSH Ovechkin, Wilson, Strome, Chychrun, Kyrou, Dubois

  64. P3 17:55Wilson: Misconduct (10 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Moser · WSH Ovechkin, Wilson, Strome, Chychrun, Kyrou, Dubois

  65. P3 18:33Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  66. P3 18:56Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  67. P3 19:01Shot by Strome, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  68. P3 19:53Shot by Leonard, saved by Vasilevskiy5v6
  69. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  70. P3 0:00Final5v6