Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 017 | 19 | 11 | 340 |
| PHI | 16 | 16 | 05 | 01 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10CARSebastian AhoAssists: William Carrier, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:03PHIOwen TippettAssists: Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:20PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 4:59CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:51CARShayne GostisbeherePPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:21CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P1 13:31PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:54CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:48PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:45PHIMatvei Michkov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:01CARJalen Chatfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:34CARShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:35PHIOwen Tippett: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Aho – Svechnikov10:26
xG 1.17–0.22 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:12
xG 0.82–0.63 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi8:04
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers8:42
xG 0.23–0.26 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield16:37
xG 1.58–0.11 (94%)attempts 30–6goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller16:35
xG 1.04–0.74 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Reilly – Gostisbehere8:57
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Cates – Foerster – Martone6:42
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Couturier – Acciari – Bump10:07
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Michkov6:48
xG 0.25–0.70 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Tippett – Zegras11:36
xG 0.34–0.90 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Sanheim11:05
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Seeler – Drysdale2:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- York – Jiricek2:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).