Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL181731000525
PIT194150511630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:49MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:07PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Hendrix Lapierre · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:32PITDeclan CarlileAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:59PITSamuel GirardAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
  5. P2 14:01PITTommy NovakAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P2 15:32PITBen KindelPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tommy Novak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
  7. P2 18:46MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–5
  8. P3 3:31MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
  9. P3 18:52MTLChris KreiderAssists: Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:16MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.11 xG5–5
  11. OT 1:33PITTommy NovakGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 13:38MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:54PITRickard Rakell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P2 4:17MTLNoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 14:54MTLIvan Demidov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  5. P2 17:16PITTrevor van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 17:16MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 0:00MTLNoah Dobson: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 9:05MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min
  10. P3 16:19PITEgor Chinakhov: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
47% to win53% to win
← MTL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLPIT
25Shots on goal30
2.9Expected goals3.7
69Shot attempts52
38Faceoffs won30
2Power plays4
12Penalty minutes8
28Hits9
12Blocked shots20
8Giveaways13
5Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestAnderson – Evans – Bolduc7:15

    xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0

  2. Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský2:24

    xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Kreider – Suzuki – Caufield10:21

    xG 0.52–0.31 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1

  4. Newhook – Slafkovský – Demidov7:55

    xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarrier – Hutson6:05

    xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  2. Dobson – Hutson4:12

    xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0

  3. Struble – Xhekaj4:00

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestCrosby – Rakell – Robertson11:00

    xG 1.03–0.54 (66%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0

  2. Hallander – Dewar – Lizotte7:14

    xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0

  3. Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:35

    xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0

  4. Lapierre – Kuzmenko – Kindel7:26

    xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGirard – Korczak13:40

    xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2

  2. Karlsson – Carlile9:59

    xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0

  3. Letang – Carlile3:49

    xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.7 xGMTL 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #2 of 65 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 10 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).