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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Montréal Canadiens 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:40Shot by Matheson, saved by Silovs
  3. P1 3:03Shot by Letang, saved by Dobes
  4. P1 3:49Goal by Caufield (Suzuki, Hutson)+14 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Girard, Dewar, Korczak, Lapierre, Kindel · MTL Kreider, Suzuki, Caufield, Struble, Xhekaj

  5. P1 4:09Shot by Suzuki, saved by Silovs
  6. P1 4:58Shot by Matheson, saved by Silovs
  7. P1 5:36Shot by Anderson, saved by Silovs
  8. P1 8:39Shot by Newhook, saved by Silovs
  9. P1 9:31Shot by Evans, saved by Silovs
  10. P1 12:57Shot by Robertson, saved by Dobes
  11. P1 13:38Matheson: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, van Riemsdyk, Hallander, Robertson · MTL Matheson, Anderson, Evans, Dobson, Hutson

  12. P1 14:04Shot by Letang, saved by Dobes5v4
  13. P1 14:07Goal by Malkin (Letang, Lapierre)5v4+14 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Lapierre, Chinakhov, Kuzmenko · MTL Evans, Carrier, Dobson, Newhook

  14. P1 15:28Shot by Kuzmenko, saved by Dobes
  15. P1 15:32Shot by Letang, saved by Dobes
  16. P1 15:54Rakell: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Rakell, van Riemsdyk, Robertson · MTL Matheson, Suzuki, Dobson, Caufield, Slafkovský

  17. P1 17:29Shot by Kindel, saved by Dobes4v5
  18. P1 18:05Shot by Kindel, saved by Dobes
  19. P1 18:13Shot by Carlile, saved by Dobes
  20. P1 19:44Shot by Slafkovský, saved by Silovs
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:32Goal by Carlile (Rakell, Karlsson)+20 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Robertson, Carlile · MTL Kreider, Matheson, Suzuki, Dobson, Caufield

  24. P2 3:16Shot by Suzuki, saved by Silovs
  25. P2 3:34Shot by Hutson, saved by Silovs
  26. P2 3:51Shot by Korczak, saved by Dobes
  27. P2 4:17Dobson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Novak, Girard, Chinakhov · MTL Matheson, Suzuki, Dobson, Caufield, Demidov

  28. P2 5:17Shot by Kindel, saved by Dobes5v4
  29. P2 6:23Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Dobes
  30. P2 7:51Shot by Girard, saved by Dobes
  31. P2 7:52Shot by Girard, saved by Dobes
  32. P2 7:53Shot by Crosby, saved by Dobes
  33. P2 7:54Shot by Crosby, saved by Dobes
  34. P2 7:59Goal by Girard (Crosby, Korczak)+14 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Rakell, Girard, Korczak, Robertson · MTL Kreider, Dach, Caufield, Xhekaj, Hutson

  35. P2 8:36Shot by Anderson, saved by Silovs
  36. P2 10:05Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Dobes
  37. P2 11:26Shot by Newhook, saved by Silovs
  38. P2 12:34Shot by Dewar, saved by Dobes
  39. P2 13:06Shot by Anderson, saved by Silovs
  40. P2 13:19Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Dobes
  41. P2 13:25Shot by Carlile, saved by Dobes
  42. P2 14:01Goal by Novak (Chinakhov, Malkin)+6 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Novak, Chinakhov, Carlile · MTL Danault, Matheson, Texier, Dobson, Dach

  43. P2 14:54Demidov: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Rakell, Girard, Dewar, Lizotte, Korczak · MTL Dobson, Newhook, Xhekaj, Hutson, Demidov

  44. P2 15:32Goal by Kindel (Karlsson, Novak)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Novak, Kindel · MTL Matheson, Evans, Dobson, Newhook

  45. P2 17:16van Riemsdyk: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, van Riemsdyk, Hallander, Dewar, Lizotte · MTL Danault, Matheson, Texier, Dach, Xhekaj

  46. P2 17:16Dach: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, van Riemsdyk, Hallander, Dewar, Lizotte · MTL Danault, Matheson, Texier, Dach, Xhekaj

  47. P2 18:46Goal by Suzuki (Hutson, Dobson)4v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Girard, Korczak, Kuzmenko, Kindel · MTL Matheson, Suzuki, Dobson, Caufield

  48. P2 19:55Shot by Caufield, saved by Silovs
  49. P2 0:00Malkin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, van Riemsdyk, Novak, Chinakhov · MTL Evans, Dobson, Caufield, Bolduc, Hutson

  50. P2 0:00Dobson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, van Riemsdyk, Novak, Chinakhov · MTL Evans, Dobson, Caufield, Bolduc, Hutson

  51. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 1:38Shot by Demidov, saved by Silovs4v4
  54. P3 3:31Goal by Caufield (Kreider)+5 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Girard, Korczak, Lapierre, Kuzmenko, Kindel · MTL Kreider, Suzuki, Caufield, Struble, Xhekaj

  55. P3 3:46Shot by Hutson, saved by Silovs
  56. P3 5:50Shot by Hutson, saved by Silovs
  57. P3 6:45Shot by Texier, saved by Silovs
  58. P3 8:02Shot by Dobson, saved by Silovs
  59. P3 9:05Anderson: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Hallander, Dewar, Lizotte · MTL Matheson, Anderson, Evans, Bolduc, Xhekaj

  60. P3 9:24Shot by Rakell, saved by Dobes5v4
  61. P3 9:27Shot by Rakell, saved by Dobes5v4
  62. P3 9:44Shot by Novak, saved by Dobes5v4
  63. P3 10:14Shot by Kindel, saved by Dobes5v4
  64. P3 12:48Shot by Kuzmenko, saved by Dobes
  65. P3 16:19Chinakhov: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Novak, Girard, Korczak, Chinakhov · MTL Matheson, Anderson, Evans, Suzuki, Bolduc

  66. P3 17:04Shot by Suzuki, saved by Silovs4v6
  67. P3 17:53Shot by Demidov, saved by Silovs4v6
  68. P3 18:52Goal by Kreider (Suzuki, Demidov)5v6+4 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Rakell, van Riemsdyk, Lizotte, Chinakhov, Carlile · MTL Kreider, Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovský, Demidov

  69. P3 19:16Goal by Demidov (Suzuki, Hutson)5v6+49 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Girard, Dewar, Korczak, Robertson · MTL Danault, Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovský, Demidov

  70. P3 0:00Period end
  71. OT 0:00Period start
  72. OT 1:33Goal by Novak (Malkin, Letang)3v3+50 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Novak · MTL Matheson, Newhook, Demidov

  73. OT 1:33Period end3v3
  74. OT 1:33Final4v4