Sun, Oct 4, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 19 | 07 | 327 |
| DET | 014 | 113 | 19 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:36WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 5:41WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 16:52DETViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Moritz Seider · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 4:56DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:26WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:10DETKeegan Kolesar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 12:10WPGTyrel Bauer: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:10DETKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 13:04DETJ.T. Compher: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 19:25WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:02DETLucas Raymond: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:18DETViktor Arvidsson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:53WPGDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Perfetti11:07
xG 1.10–0.92 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Lowry – Barron – Lambert8:45
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Iafallo6:59
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Rosen – Björck8:30
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:00
xG 0.94–0.70 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Bauer7:20
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Ferraro3:02
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Finnie – Brandsegg-Nygård6:33
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Finnie – Brandsegg-Nygård4:04
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Compher – Kolesar – Rasmussen6:49
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Arvidsson – Raymond3:17
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Sandin-Pellikka8:26
xG 1.15–0.43 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Englund2:11
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Johansson8:15
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).