Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 27 | 06 | 01 | 425 |
| TOR | 08 | 313 | 112 | 14 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Matthew Wood, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 9:08NSHNils HoglanderAssists: Adam Wilsby, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 3:03NSHNils HoglanderAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mavrik Bourque · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 4:56TORJohn TavaresAssists: Gavin McKenna, Anthony Stolarz · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 6:58TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 13:30NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 14:31TORGavin McKennaAssists: Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 8:54TORJack RoslovicAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- OT 4:46TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:31TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:31NSHJack Drury: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:06NSHRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Drury – Edstrom5:48
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Kerfoot5:57
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Colton – Drury – Edstrom3:47
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:27
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix15:25
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Wilsby – Trudeau8:48
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Hague – Ahcan3:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Roslovic – Matthews3:15
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Sissons – Paul – Cowan4:38
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Paul – McKenna4:23
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – Duhaime – Groulx5:45
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Raddysh16:02
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher14:59
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Tanev – McCabe16:14
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).