Tue, Oct 6, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 28 | 05 | 03 | 220 |
| BUF | 04 | 08 | 211 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:53MINDanila YurovPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 15:38MINMaxim ShabanovAssists: Quinn Hughes, Michael McCarron · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 3:55BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Owen Power, Rasmus Dahlin · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 9:38BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:22BUFOwen PowerGWGAssists: Jiri Kulich, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:03MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:30BUFZach Benson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:59BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:28BUFRyan McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:17BUFPeyton Krebs: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:09MINOlli Maatta: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Kaprizov – Brink2:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy3:56
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Trenin – Brink2:16
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Yurov – Shabanov7:57
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Hughes15:40
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Brodin – Hughes2:14
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hunt11:00
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Kulich5:00
xG 0.75–0.08 (90%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Quinn – Ostlund – Benson11:51
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Danforth – McLeod3:59
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Doan6:46
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power9:19
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Power – Zellweger7:41
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Crevier – Metsa4:47
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).