Tue, Oct 6, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
77%
11%
BUF winsMIN wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against MIN's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Kaprizov–Yurov–Shabanov | Foligno–McCarron–Trenin | Coleman–Eriksson Ek–Boldy | Eriksson Ek–Kaprizov–Boldy | Foligno–Foligno–McCarron | Coleman–Hartman–Brink | Hartman–Trenin–Brink | Hartman–Kaprizov–Brink | Hartman–Brink–Boldy | Coleman–Yurov–Shabanov | Spurgeon–Hughes | Brodin–Maatta | Bogosian–Hunt | Brodin–Hughes | Maatta–Hughes | Maatta–Hunt | Hughes–Hunt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn–Ostlund–Benson | 2:420.00–0.17 | 0:340.19–0.00 | 1:270.02–0.00 | 1:280.00–0.02 | 2:000.39–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.10 | 2:320.14–0.02 | 5:560.35–0.27 | 2:030.25–0.00 | ||||||||
| Thompson–Norris–Doan | 1:280.17–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.13 | 1:120.00–0.08 | 0:530.01–0.00 | 3:060.00–0.31 | 1:410.18–0.00 | 1:220.00–0.04 | ||||||||||
| Thompson–Krebs–Kulich | 1:130.00–0.00 | 0:340.12–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.08 | 0:470.02–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 2:380.15–0.08 | 1:090.03–0.00 | 0:440.57–0.00 | |||||||||
| Krebs–Kulich–Helenius | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:090.02–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 1:350.02–0.00 | 1:280.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Malenstyn–Danforth–McLeod | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:100.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:420.04–0.00 | 2:060.05–0.00 | 1:280.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Norris–McLeod–Helenius | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:570.01–0.00 | 1:200.01–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Thompson–Krebs–Doan | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.07 | 0:530.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Norris–Kulich–Helenius | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 3:370.17–0.17 | 1:440.02–0.13 | 0:570.01–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 2:390.00–0.16 | 4:210.19–0.17 | 1:320.00–0.00 | 0:410.01–0.00 | |||||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 0:340.00–0.00 | 1:390.00–0.00 | 1:240.12–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:050.34–0.00 | 0:400.02–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 4:580.29–0.07 | 2:440.34–0.10 | 0:460.03–0.00 | |||||||
| Power–Zellweger | 1:350.00–0.00 | 0:430.19–0.00 | 2:050.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 1:410.00–0.11 | 1:100.00–0.00 | 4:030.19–0.00 | |||||||||
| Crevier–Metsa | 1:290.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:150.02–0.00 | 0:540.04–0.00 | 1:250.02–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.09 | ||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Zellweger | 1:440.00–0.04 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 2:140.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.04 | 0:330.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Crevier | 0:410.01–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.08 | 1:250.01–0.08 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Zellweger | 1:010.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.09 | 1:000.00–0.09 | 1:030.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 0:330.05–0.00 | 0:380.05–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Crevier | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Crevier–Power | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:020.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Power–Metsa | 0:400.00–0.08 | 0:520.00–0.08 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFMINFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Quinn HughesMIN | 28 | 29:30 | 1:03 | 2:01 | 7 | 1 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 31 | 29:15 | 0:57 | 1:30 | 6 | 3 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 33 | 29:04 | 0:53 | 1:28 | 2 | 2 |
 Kirill KaprizovMIN | 22 | 24:58 | 1:08 | 2:01 | 6 | 1 |
 Matt BoldyMIN | 26 | 23:24 | 0:54 | 2:01 | 9 | 3 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 24 | 22:41 | 0:57 | 1:59 | 2 | 6 |
 Jared SpurgeonMIN | 30 | 21:49 | 0:44 | 1:48 | 6 | 6 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 25 | 21:45 | 0:52 | 1:39 | 3 | 0 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 26 | 20:41 | 0:48 | 1:30 | 2 | 1 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 25 | 20:39 | 0:50 | 1:19 | 3 | 1 |
 Joel Eriksson EkMIN | 23 | 20:26 | 0:53 | 2:01 | 6 | 2 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 22 | 20:23 | 0:56 | 2:10 | 4 | 2 |
 Olli MaattaMIN | 21 | 19:18 | 0:55 | 1:42 | 2 | 2 |
 Jonas BrodinMIN | 21 | 19:18 | 0:55 | 2:22 | 1 | 2 |
 Blake ColemanMIN | 22 | 17:44 | 0:48 | 1:29 | 4 | 4 |
 Maxim ShabanovMIN | 17 | 17:30 | 1:02 | 1:50 | 5 | 1 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 22 | 16:44 | 0:46 | 1:04 | 5 | 4 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 19 | 15:21 | 0:48 | 1:32 | 2 | 1 |
 Michael McCarronMIN | 18 | 15:16 | 0:51 | 1:40 | 1 | 1 |
 Olen ZellwegerBUF | 19 | 14:52 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 2 | 2 |
 Danila YurovMIN | 17 | 14:21 | 0:51 | 1:19 | 2 | 2 |
 Louis CrevierBUF | 19 | 14:19 | 0:45 | 1:14 | 1 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 22 | 14:15 | 0:39 | 1:09 | 2 | 5 |
 Zach BogosianMIN | 18 | 14:12 | 0:47 | 1:26 | 1 | 1 |
 Daemon HuntMIN | 17 | 14:08 | 0:50 | 1:21 | 1 | 1 |
 Jiri KulichBUF | 18 | 13:56 | 0:46 | 1:17 | 3 | 1 |
 Ryan HartmanMIN | 16 | 13:40 | 0:51 | 1:32 | 3 | 2 |
 Bobby BrinkMIN | 15 | 13:34 | 0:54 | 1:37 | 3 | 0 |
 Marcus FolignoMIN | 16 | 13:25 | 0:50 | 1:39 | 1 | 1 |
 Yakov TreninMIN | 14 | 13:04 | 0:56 | 1:43 | 2 | 1 |
 Konsta HeleniusBUF | 16 | 13:01 | 0:49 | 1:23 | 3 | 2 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 15 | 12:05 | 0:48 | 1:21 | 3 | 1 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 12 | 10:44 | 0:54 | 2:04 | 0 | 5 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 13 | 8:28 | 0:39 | 1:13 | 0 | 2 |
 Justin DanforthBUF | 16 | 8:17 | 0:31 | 1:26 | 0 | 6 |
 Nick FolignoMIN | 5 | 3:29 | 0:42 | 1:17 | 0 | 0 |