Wed, Oct 7, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
55%
30%
WSH winsPIT wins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 24:44 | 0.10 | 36.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:36 | 0.24 | 61.7% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 3 | 19:22 | 0.17 | 24.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:09 | 0.34 | 43.7% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −4 | 2 | 19:07 | 0.11 | 23.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:00 | 0.08 | 54.0% | +11.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 18:04 | 0.00 | 32.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 17:23 | 0.16 | 63.9% | +13.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:22 | 0.20 | 67.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 17:16 | 0.16 | 55.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 16:24 | 0.00 | 34.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:29 | 0.43 | 76.3% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:17 | 0.50 | 71.7% | +6.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 14:08 | 0.09 | 56.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 13:02 | 0.24 | 32.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0.00 | 28.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 10:53 | 0.16 | 69.4% | +13.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 8:32 | 0.05 | 25.1% | +13.5 |
| L | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 3.82 | −1.2 | 56:04 |
Washington Capitals
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25:22 | 0.07 | 62.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:56 | 0.01 | 55.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0.00 | 56.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 19:49 | 0.13 | 71.2% | +36.4 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 18:35 | 0.83 | 65.7% | +6.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:52 | 0.24 | 49.8% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 17:41 | 0.59 | 79.4% | +29.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:03 | 0.03 | 57.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 3 | 16:29 | 0.29 | 48.9% | +13.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 16:04 | 0.07 | 19.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0.11 | 45.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:05 | 0.48 | 50.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:53 | 0.40 | 75.5% | +13.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:31 | 0.33 | 62.1% | +11.4 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 1 | 11:58 | 0.04 | 5.8% | +13.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 1 | 11:44 | 0.11 | 5.6% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 10:46 | 0.06 | 47.3% | +11.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 9:01 | 0.01 | 51.6% | 0.0 |
| W | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 3.04 | 0.0 | 60:00 |