Thu, Oct 8, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 7, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 313 | 311 | 730 |
| CGY | 18 | 011 | 210 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:54COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:30CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Jonathan Castagna · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:45COLDevon ToewsAssists: Noah Juulsen, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 9:16COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:39COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Zachary L'Heureux · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 5:35COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 6:34COLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Hughes, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.20 xG6–1
- P3 7:17CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–2
- P3 8:28CGYKevin BahlAssists: Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 9:41COLJaden SchwartzAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.03 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:23CGYAydar Suniev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:13COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:23CGYZayne Parekh: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:46COLZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:46CGYMatt Coronato: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:38COLParker Kelly: Interference2 min
- P3 0:17CGYZayne Parekh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Svechkov – Hughes10:22
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Necas10:43
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Roy – Kelly – L'Heureux9:00
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Kadri – Lehkonen – MacKinnon12:08
xG 0.47–0.90 (34%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson16:45
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 22–14goals 2–2
- Toews – Makar14:03
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Kulak – Juulsen12:27
xG 0.59–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Farabee – Sharangovich11:51
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin8:51
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Frost – Coronato – Suniev2:01
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Klapka – Castagna – Suniev6:31
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl11:20
xG 1.13–0.44 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Bahl – Nemec4:31
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).