Thu, Oct 8, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 39 | 08 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 324 |
| VGK | 17 | 221 | 011 | 04 | 2 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34TORJack RoslovicAssists: Auston Matthews, Kirill Marchenko · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:20TOREaston CowanAssists: Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 8:37TORNick PaulAssists: Darren Raddysh, Gavin McKenna · Slap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P1 17:36VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 1:12VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Mitch Marner, William Karlsson · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 3:58VGKJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VGK Braeden Bowman scored
- 2. TOR Kirill Marchenko scored
- 3. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 5. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 6. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 7. VGK Mitch Marner stopped
- 8. TOR Gavin McKenna stopped
- 9. VGK Trevor Connelly scored
- 10. TOR John Tavares stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:17TORGavin McKenna: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:58TORMorgan Rielly: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:09TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:09TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:27VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:58TORBo Groulx: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Paul – McKenna8:12
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Matthews – Marchenko6:42
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Blueger – Duhaime – Groulx3:59
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan3:50
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Stecher2:49
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Raddysh3:31
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher10:14
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel12:48
xG 0.81–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marner – Howden11:57
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Dowd – Gatcomb – Bowman7:41
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hertl – Lavoie – Connelly7:06
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:52
xG 0.95–0.55 (63%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson2:12
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Lauzon14:24
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).