Sat, Oct 10, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 34 | 211 | 623 |
| COL | 211 | 113 | 09 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03TORNick BlankenburgAssists: William Nylander, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:46COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Brett Kulak, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 15:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:53TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Gavin McKenna, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 12:25COLBrock NelsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 16:47TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 17:33TOREaston CowanGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 12:02TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 19:21TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:24TORKirill Marchenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:59TORJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:51TORTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:34COLJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32COLCale Makar: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:41TORBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:41TORBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:41COLZachary L'Heureux: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:59COLFedor Svechkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:09TORDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Matthews – Marchenko4:47
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Nylander – Matthews – McKenna2:45
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Paul – Groulx – Marchenko2:04
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Paul – Nylander – Cowan2:08
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Stecher6:47
xG 1.24–0.23 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Rielly – Stecher3:13
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Blankenburg10:02
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:49
xG 1.16–0.39 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Kadri – Nelson – Landeskog8:42
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Svechkov – Hughes6:00
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – L'Heureux5:41
xG 0.24–0.82 (23%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson8:59
xG 0.75–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar11:03
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Burns – Malinski3:07
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).