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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 10, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.

COL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:15Shot by Roslovic, saved by Blackwood
  3. P1 0:24Marchenko: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, Makar · TOR McCabe, Raddysh, Roslovic, Matthews, Marchenko

  4. P1 3:03Goal by Blankenburg (Nylander, Paul)+14 pts WP

    On ice: COL Kulak, Roy, Kelly, L'Heureux, Malinski · TOR Rielly, Paul, Nylander, Blankenburg, Cowan

  5. P1 3:23Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky
  6. P1 6:24Shot by McKenna, saved by Blackwood
  7. P1 6:47Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky
  8. P1 7:08Shot by Lehkonen, saved by Bobrovsky
  9. P1 8:57Shot by Stecher, saved by Blackwood
  10. P1 10:13Shot by Makar, saved by Bobrovsky
  11. P1 10:46Goal by MacKinnon (Kulak, Toews)+15 pts WP

    On ice: COL Kulak, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Malinski · TOR Tanev, Rielly, Roslovic, Matthews, Marchenko

  12. P1 10:59Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky
  13. P1 11:12Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky
  14. P1 11:37Shot by McKenna, saved by Blackwood
  15. P1 12:23Shot by Nelson, saved by Bobrovsky
  16. P1 14:27Shot by Roslovic, saved by Blackwood
  17. P1 14:28Shot by Roslovic, saved by Blackwood
  18. P1 14:28Shot by Roslovic, saved by Blackwood
  19. P1 15:14Goal by MacKinnon (Makar, Necas)+18 pts WP

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, Makar · TOR McCabe, Paul, Nylander, Raddysh, Cowan

  20. P1 18:00Shot by Manson, saved by Bobrovsky
  21. P1 18:59Roslovic: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Kadri, Nelson, Landeskog, Makar, Malinski · TOR Rielly, Roslovic, Matthews, Blankenburg, McKenna

  22. P1 19:30Shot by Necas, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  23. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:37Shot by Kadri, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  26. P2 0:51Stecher: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: COL Kadri, MacKinnon, Necas, Makar, Hughes · TOR Sissons, McCabe, Stecher, Duhaime

  27. P2 0:58Shot by Hughes, saved by Bobrovsky5v3
  28. P2 2:00Shot by Makar, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  29. P2 2:11Shot by Kadri, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  30. P2 3:44Shot by Roy, saved by Bobrovsky
  31. P2 6:21Shot by Svechkov, saved by Bobrovsky
  32. P2 6:34Schwartz: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Burns, Manson, Roy, Kelly, L'Heureux · TOR McCabe, Raddysh, Matthews, Marchenko, McKenna

  33. P2 6:53Goal by Nylander (McKenna, Matthews)4v5+23 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Toews, Roy, Kelly · TOR Nylander, Raddysh, Matthews, Marchenko, McKenna

  34. P2 8:44Shot by Kulak, saved by Bobrovsky
  35. P2 12:22Shot by Nelson, saved by Bobrovsky
  36. P2 12:25Goal by Nelson, unassisted+26 pts WP

    On ice: COL Burns, Kadri, Nelson, Manson, Landeskog · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Roslovic, Matthews, Blankenburg

  37. P2 13:53Shot by Burns, saved by Bobrovsky
  38. P2 14:25Shot by Landeskog, saved by Bobrovsky
  39. P2 15:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Blackwood
  40. P2 16:47Goal by Nylander (Matthews, Paul)+28 pts WP

    On ice: COL Burns, Kulak, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Paul, Nylander, Matthews, Stecher

  41. P2 17:07Shot by Roy, saved by Bobrovsky
  42. P2 17:33Goal by Cowan (Rielly, Nylander)+21 pts WP

    On ice: COL Nelson, Toews, Roy, Makar, Kelly · TOR Rielly, Blueger, Nylander, Blankenburg, Cowan

  43. P2 19:22Shot by Makar, saved by Bobrovsky
  44. P2 19:32Makar: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, Makar · TOR Rielly, Sissons, Marchenko, Blankenburg, Cowan

  45. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  46. P3 0:00Period start
  47. P3 2:57Shot by Landeskog, saved by Bobrovsky
  48. P3 5:28Shot by Nylander, saved by Blackwood
  49. P3 5:38Shot by McCabe, saved by Blackwood
  50. P3 6:26Shot by L'Heureux, saved by Bobrovsky
  51. P3 6:41Duhaime: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Schwartz, Manson, Kulak, Kelly, L'Heureux · TOR Sissons, Blueger, McCabe, Raddysh, Duhaime

  52. P3 6:41Duhaime: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Schwartz, Manson, Kulak, Kelly, L'Heureux · TOR Sissons, Blueger, McCabe, Raddysh, Duhaime

  53. P3 6:41L'Heureux: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Schwartz, Manson, Kulak, Kelly, L'Heureux · TOR Sissons, Blueger, McCabe, Raddysh, Duhaime

  54. P3 6:47Shot by Hughes, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  55. P3 6:56Shot by Hughes, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  56. P3 7:20Shot by Kadri, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  57. P3 8:00Shot by Necas, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  58. P3 8:41Shot by Blueger, saved by Blackwood
  59. P3 10:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Blackwood
  60. P3 11:20MacKinnon: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: COL Kulak, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Malinski · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Raddysh, Roslovic, Matthews, McKenna

  61. P3 12:02Goal by Matthews (Nylander, Marchenko)4v5+13 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Toews, Kelly, Svechkov · TOR Nylander, Raddysh, Matthews, Marchenko, McKenna

  62. P3 12:15Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky
  63. P3 12:25Shot by Duhaime, saved by Blackwood
  64. P3 12:40Shot by Cowan, saved by Blackwood
  65. P3 13:44Shot by Matthews, saved by Blackwood
  66. P3 13:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Blackwood
  67. P3 13:59Svechkov: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Schwartz, Kulak, Svechkov, Malinski, Hughes · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Matthews, Stecher, McKenna

  68. P3 15:33Shot by Roslovic, saved by Blackwood4v5
  69. P3 17:09Raddysh: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: COL Kadri, Landeskog, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Makar · TOR Sissons, McCabe, Nylander, Raddysh, Matthews

  70. P3 17:40Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Bobrovsky6v4
  71. P3 19:12Shot by Nelson, saved by Bobrovsky6v5
  72. P3 19:21Goal by Matthews, unassisted6v50 pts WP

    On ice: COL Kadri, Landeskog, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Makar · TOR Sissons, McCabe, Paul, Matthews, Stecher

  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. P3 0:00Final