Mon, Oct 12, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 27 | 09 | 323 |
| BUF | 211 | 113 | 28 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58BUFJosh DoanAssists: Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:00FLAAnton LundellAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sandis Vilmanis · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:55BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:26FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk · Poke, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:25BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Olen Zellweger, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
- P2 13:41FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 7:15BUFNoah OstlundPPGWGAssists: Zach Benson, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 13:20BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Owen Power, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:15FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:01FLARadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:26FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 5:55BUFOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48BUFBeck Malenstyn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 13:39BUFJosh Norris: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:26FLAEetu Luostarinen: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:08BUFJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLuostarinen – Lundell – Vilmanis9:34
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Imama6:58
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Tkachuk10:59
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lafferty11:31
xG 0.05–1.07 (5%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling16:42
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 21–11goals 1–2
- Jones – Mikkola13:23
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Gudas10:30
xG 0.01–0.72 (2%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Kulich – Helenius10:07
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan11:55
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Malenstyn – Norris – Kozak7:13
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Quinn – Ostlund – Benson10:26
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPower – Zellweger5:36
xG 0.69–0.17 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin6:59
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Power – Metsa8:36
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).