Mon, Oct 18, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Dallas Stars 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 13 | 29 | 419 |
| TBL | 215 | 220 | 19 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04DALToby PetersenSHAssists: Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:21TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:46TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 6:04DALAdam BurishAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 9:26TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 18:06TBLDominic MoorePPAssists: Pavel Kubina, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 6:11TBLDominic MoorePPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 6:24DALBrenden MorrowUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 19:00DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:50TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:13TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:41DALMark Fistric: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:04TBLMatt Smaby: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:19DALMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:36DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:35DALJames Neal: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:52TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:03TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Burish4:49
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Segal4:05
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell4:29
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Sutherby – Segal3:15
xG 0.18–0.31 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Niskanen6:14
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann9:24
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann2:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell11:10
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Gagne – Malone – Moore6:08
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:14
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Bergenheim – Purcell2:33
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman12:35
xG 0.56–0.11 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Vernace2:31
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin9:24
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).