Fri, Feb 25, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 111 | 112 | 231 |
| BUF | 110 | 118 | 211 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25BUFMike GrierAssists: Cody McCormick · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 9:45BUFCody McCormickAssists: Steve Montador, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 14:24OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Condra, Milan Michalek · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:35BUFJochen HechtGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 18:05OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:28BUFThomas VanekENAssists: Steve Montador, Ryan Miller · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:06BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:43OTTFrancis Lessard: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:18BUFJordan Leopold: Interference2 min
- P2 7:08BUFRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:57OTTMilan Michalek: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:26BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Greening – Condra – Smith7:05
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Foligno3:37
xG 0.17–0.18 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Smith5:48
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Lessard – Locke – Wick5:19
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Campoli11:33
xG 0.38–0.81 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Kuba – Karlsson12:43
xG 0.26–0.86 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee17:10
xG 0.61–1.43 (30%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe10:13
xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 12–1goals 0–1
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek8:54
xG 0.66–0.16 (81%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis10:00
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick7:18
xG 0.21–0.16 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Myers11:21
xG 0.96–0.26 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Morrisonn – Weber14:23
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador15:20
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).