Tue, Mar 22, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 28 | 29 | 528 |
| TBL | 19 | 011 | 118 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Teddy Purcell, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 10:22NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Milan Jurcina · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:16NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Milan Jurcina, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:39NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Zenon Konopka · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 8:08NYIFrans NielsenSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 10:31TBLDominic MoorePPAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 19:14NYIMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:58TBLBlair Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:58NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:32TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:52NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P3 7:38NYIBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:02NYIRadek Martinek: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 13:36NYIJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:17NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:17TBLSean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:37TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:37NYIJack Hillen: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:24NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:51TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner7:49
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin6:57
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey8:40
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:11
xG 0.09–0.79 (10%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jurcina – Hillen12:51
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic11:23
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais10:53
xG 0.11–0.60 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Thompson – Purcell9:57
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Moore – Bergenheim – Tyrell2:56
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim2:59
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Gagne – Stamkos5:54
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman6:40
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Clark8:14
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin2:10
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).