Tue, Mar 29, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 013 | 211 | 233 |
| TBL | 09 | 29 | 313 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:15TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 7:25TBLDominic MooreAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Dana Tyrell · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P3 5:48TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Simon Gagne, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 10:03OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Colin Greening, David Hale · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:27TBLDominic MooreAssists: Dana Tyrell, Brett Clark · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 15:15OTTMilan MichalekSHAssists: Filip Kuba, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:26TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Adam Hall, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:57OTTNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:00OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:29TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:36TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:09OTTChris Neil: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:09OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:09OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:09OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:09TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Butler9:10
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Lessard – Svatos – Smith2:22
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith2:55
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Michalek – Shannon – Condra8:33
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kuba – Karlsson13:33
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee13:56
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hale – Wiercioch10:26
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Gagne6:46
xG 1.06–0.33 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell4:34
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Thompson3:45
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Lundin11:55
xG 1.58–0.33 (83%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Hedman4:15
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kubina – Hedman7:55
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).