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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 29, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:39Shot by St. Louis, saved by McElhinney
  3. P1 0:51Shot by Thompson, saved by McElhinney
  4. P1 1:07Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  5. P1 1:14Shot by Condra, saved by Roloson
  6. P1 2:48Shot by Kuba, saved by Roloson
  7. P1 3:18Shot by Karlsson, saved by Roloson
  8. P1 5:28Shot by Downie, saved by McElhinney
  9. P1 7:21Shot by Kuba, saved by Roloson
  10. P1 7:37Shot by Karlsson, saved by Roloson
  11. P1 8:26Shot by Butler, saved by Roloson
  12. P1 10:09Shot by Smith, saved by Roloson
  13. P1 11:15Shot by Gagne, saved by McElhinney
  14. P1 13:39Shot by Purcell, saved by McElhinney
  15. P1 13:58Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  16. P1 14:08Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  17. P1 14:57Foligno: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Bergeron, Bergenheim, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Hale, Shannon, Foligno, Condra, Wiercioch

  18. P1 18:03Shot by Winchester, saved by Roloson
  19. P1 19:00Shot by Purcell, saved by McElhinney
  20. P1 19:18Shot by Spezza, saved by Roloson
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:52Shot by Spezza, saved by Roloson
  24. P2 1:42Shot by Michalek, saved by Roloson
  25. P2 2:08Shot by Thompson, saved by McElhinney
  26. P2 3:13Shot by St. Louis, saved by McElhinney
  27. P2 3:15Goal by St. Louis (Lecavalier, Gagne)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Gagne, Lundin · OTT Lee, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Butler

  28. P2 3:28Shot by Shannon, saved by Roloson
  29. P2 5:58Shot by Karlsson, saved by Roloson
  30. P2 7:25Goal by Moore (Bergeron, Tyrell)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Moore, Bergeron, Tyrell, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Foligno, Winchester, Wiercioch

  31. P2 8:14Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  32. P2 8:43Shot by Condra, saved by Roloson
  33. P2 9:00Michalek: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Brewer, Thompson, Lundin, Downie, Stamkos · OTT Kuba, Michalek, Shannon, Condra, Karlsson

  34. P2 10:54Shot by Winchester, saved by Roloson5v4
  35. P2 12:06Shot by Lee, saved by Roloson
  36. P2 12:28Shot by Lee, saved by Roloson
  37. P2 13:10Shot by Lecavalier, saved by McElhinney
  38. P2 13:29Ohlund: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Ohlund, Clark, Bergenheim, Purcell, Tyrell · OTT Phillips, Spezza, Lee, Greening, Butler

  39. P2 13:37Shot by Hall, saved by McElhinney4v5
  40. P2 14:24Shot by Michalek, saved by Roloson4v5
  41. P2 14:35Shot by Spezza, saved by Roloson4v5
  42. P2 15:26Shot by Svatos, saved by Roloson4v5
  43. P2 15:36Hedman: Delaying game (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Ohlund, Kubina, Moore, Tyrell, Hedman · OTT Phillips, Svatos, Greening, Smith, Wiercioch

  44. P2 15:50Shot by Michalek, saved by Roloson4v5
  45. P2 17:18Shot by Karlsson, saved by Roloson4v5
  46. P2 19:38Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  47. P2 19:59Shot by Moore, saved by McElhinney
  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 0:55Shot by Kuba, saved by Roloson
  51. P3 1:38Shot by Downie, saved by McElhinney
  52. P3 2:58Shot by Lecavalier, saved by McElhinney
  53. P3 4:59Shot by Condra, saved by Roloson
  54. P3 5:48Goal by St. Louis (Gagne, Stamkos)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, St. Louis, Gagne, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Phillips, Neil, Lee, Foligno, Smith

  55. P3 6:13Shot by Greening, saved by Roloson
  56. P3 7:03Shot by Shannon, saved by Roloson
  57. P3 7:26Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  58. P3 9:59Shot by Kuba, saved by Roloson
  59. P3 10:03Goal by Spezza (Greening, Hale)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Ohlund, Brewer, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Gagne · OTT Kuba, Hale, Spezza, Greening, Butler

  60. P3 10:20Shot by Smith, saved by Roloson
  61. P3 10:26Shot by Karlsson, saved by Roloson
  62. P3 10:45Shot by St. Louis, saved by McElhinney
  63. P3 10:51Shot by Lecavalier, saved by McElhinney
  64. P3 11:27Goal by Moore (Tyrell, Clark)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Ohlund, Clark, Hall, Moore, Tyrell · OTT Hale, Spezza, Greening, Wiercioch, Butler

  65. P3 12:09Neil: Elbowing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Thompson, Downie, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Svatos, Smith, Wiercioch

  66. P3 12:09Neil: Roughing (2 min)5v3

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Thompson, Downie, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Svatos, Smith, Wiercioch

  67. P3 12:09Neil: Fighting (5 min)5v3

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Thompson, Downie, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Svatos, Smith, Wiercioch

  68. P3 12:09Neil: Misconduct (10 min)5v3

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Thompson, Downie, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Svatos, Smith, Wiercioch

  69. P3 12:09Downie: Fighting (5 min)5v3

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Thompson, Downie, Stamkos, Hedman · OTT Neil, Hale, Svatos, Smith, Wiercioch

  70. P3 12:58Shot by Lecavalier, saved by McElhinney5v4
  71. P3 14:06Shot by Moore, saved by McElhinney5v4
  72. P3 15:15Goal by Michalek (Kuba, Spezza)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Bergeron, Lundin, Stamkos · OTT Kuba, Spezza, Michalek, Lee

  73. P3 16:11Shot by Hall, saved by McElhinney
  74. P3 16:53Shot by Stamkos, saved by McElhinney
  75. P3 17:49Shot by Thompson, saved by McElhinney
  76. P3 18:44Shot by Shannon, saved by Roloson5v6
  77. P3 19:26Goal by Stamkos (Hall, Moore)5v60 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Ohlund, Brewer, Hall, Moore, Stamkos · OTT Kuba, Spezza, Svatos, Michalek, Shannon, Karlsson

  78. P3 19:59Shot by Condra, saved by Roloson
  79. P3 0:00Period end
  80. P3 0:00Final