Sat, Oct 29, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 113 | 218 | 336 |
| BUF | 08 | 16 | 112 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:48FLAMarcel GocAssists: Scottie Upshall, Tomas Kopecky · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 18:14BUFThomas VanekAssists: Luke Adam, Tyler Myers · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 12:53BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Brad Boyes, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 16:02FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 18:17FLAJason GarrisonPPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Kopecky · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:57BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 13:05FLAJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:24FLAMarco Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28BUFJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P2 7:07BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:28FLAJack Skille: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:43FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:15FLAMarco Sturm: Boarding5 min
- P3 13:15FLAMarco Sturm: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:15BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:41BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:41BUFNathan Gerbe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:01
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille7:38
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall7:47
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Bradley – Kennedy – Matthias7:35
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison13:47
xG 0.68–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson7:09
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:38
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Ellis – Stafford2:35
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Gerbe3:05
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe8:13
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Leino5:08
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera12:09
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Regehr – Myers10:51
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Leopold – Gragnani10:33
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).