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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 8, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Winnipeg Jets 5, Buffalo Sabres 6 (OT)

Away

Winnipeg Jets

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Buffalo Sabres

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.

BUF winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
WPG3121121601531
BUF3191911413645

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:48WPGMark FloodAssists: Tanner Glass, Jim Slater · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:54WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P1 9:05BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P1 9:16BUFCorey TroppAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
  5. P1 11:25WPGTanner GlassAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–2
  6. P1 13:06BUFJason PominvilleSHAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P2 1:07WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Tim Stapleton · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–3
  8. P2 15:48BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.04 xG4–4
  9. P3 0:48WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
  10. P3 13:52BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.02 xG5–5
  11. OT 4:35BUFThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–6
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 6:39WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Charging2 min
  2. P1 8:47WPGNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:25BUFJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
  4. P1 17:39WPGEvander Kane: Holding2 min
  5. P1 18:14WPGZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 0:30BUFNathan Gerbe: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  7. P2 3:52WPGAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
  8. P2 8:16BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 8:16WPGTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:08BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 15:26WPGAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P2 19:18BUFLuke Adam: Hooking2 min
  13. P2 0:00WPGEvander Kane: Holding2 min
  14. P3 3:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
  15. P3 4:04BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  16. P3 11:14WPGJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 12:51WPGZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min · PPG
  18. P3 13:35WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  19. OT 4:05WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
  20. OT 4:05WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
45% to win55% to win
← WPG attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Little
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGBUF
31Shots on goal45
3.3Expected goals5.9
44Shot attempts80
25Faceoffs won50
5Power plays12
39Penalty minutes15
18Hits14
17Blocked shots7
10Giveaways12
7Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. Thorburn – McArdle – Stapleton2:16

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  2. Wellwood – Slater – Glass7:15

    xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0

  3. Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov10:19

    xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0

  4. Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:39

    xG 0.62–1.11 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. Flood – Festerling7:13

    xG 0.18–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0

  2. Oduya – Byfuglien14:57

    xG 1.00–1.45 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1

  3. Stuart – Bogosian13:10

    xG 0.68–1.41 (33%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestGaustad – Gerbe – Tropp3:25

    xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0

  2. Roy – Stafford – Leino10:10

    xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1

  3. Boyes – Gaustad – Gerbe5:26

    xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0

  4. McCormick – Ellis – Tropp2:10

    xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEhrhoff – Gragnani11:30

    xG 1.75–0.65 (73%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0

  2. Regehr – Leopold12:01

    xG 1.03–0.49 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1

  3. Sekera – Myers10:14

    xG 0.15–0.65 (19%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 5.9 xGWPG 3.3 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #4 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.35 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.

BUF winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).