Wed, Nov 30, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 26 | 09 | 223 |
| DET | 218 | 05 | 212 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:04DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 9:35TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Gilroy, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:22DETTomas HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 13:14DETDarren HelmAssists: Jakub Kindl, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:37TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:39DETTodd Bertuzzi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:09DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28TBLNate Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:23DETFabian Brunnstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:13TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:35DETJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:45TBLVincent Lecavalier: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell6:18
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Malone – Downie – Purcell3:50
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos7:03
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Moore – Pyatt – Connolly8:08
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman12:06
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Clark – Kubina11:27
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Gilroy12:24
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:23
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Cleary – Helm – Brunnstrom6:55
xG 0.07–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler9:49
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader7:09
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White14:28
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kindl6:45
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall4:54
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).