Sat, Mar 3, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 423 |
| CAR | 08 | 38 | 09 | 03 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58TBLTim WallaceAssists: Ryan Shannon · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 5:23CARAnthony StewartAssists: Eric Staal, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:02CARJussi JokinenUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:18CARAnthony StewartAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 18:00TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:24TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:41TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:06TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:01TBLMike Commodore: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:15CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:28CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:05CARBrandon Sutter: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Pyatt – Connolly7:40
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Wyman8:41
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos15:01
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Mikkelson6:03
xG 0.30–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Brewer – Gervais2:13
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gervais – Lee2:15
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Skinner11:39
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Nodl – Sutter – Bowman12:20
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Boychuk5:25
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Brent – Skinner2:10
xG 0.01–0.01 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk16:41
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain10:51
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Allen – Gleason19:43
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).