Tue, Mar 13, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 111 | 112 | 228 |
| FLA | 19 | 15 | 313 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59FLASean BergenheimAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 14:43FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Marcel Goc, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 19:02TORTyler BozakAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 6:07FLATomas KopeckyPPGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Ed Jovanovski · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 10:28FLAMarcel GocPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 13:50TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Luke Schenn, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:40FLASean BergenheimENAssists: Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:16TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:16FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29TORClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P1 19:57FLAJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P2 12:42TORCarter Ashton: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:17TORCarter Ashton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:12TORTyler Bozak: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 11:40TORCarter Ashton: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40FLAShawn Matthias: Instigator2 min
- P3 11:40FLAShawn Matthias: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40FLAShawn Matthias: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Kessel – Bozak7:11
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Rosehill – Frattin2:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (99%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin3:14
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Ashton4:58
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Komisarek9:59
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Schenn2:56
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Liles – Gardiner3:42
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim10:25
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias5:11
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Kopecky – Matthias3:17
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Madden – Barch – Smithson5:21
xG 0.00–0.07 (2%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ellerby2:26
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison2:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Ellerby15:48
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).