Mon, Mar 19, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 418 | 111 | 738 |
| TBL | 06 | 29 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:50BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:09BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Tyler Ennis, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 7:12TBLBruno GervaisAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 8:16BUFCorey TroppGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 14:14TBLTrevor SmithAssists: Ryan Malone, Bruno Gervais · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 16:22BUFMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P2 17:00BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Cody McCormick, Alexander Sulzer · Wrist, 0.39 xG6–2
- P3 0:17BUFJason PominvilleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–2
- P3 14:57TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.03 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:10TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49TBLBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:11BUFRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:22TBLBrandon Segal: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:10BUFAndrej Sekera: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Pyatt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McCormick – Kaleta8:08
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno12:54
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Vanek – Tropp – Hodgson11:05
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Roy – Pominville – Leino12:09
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera9:00
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer13:30
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 23–14goals 3–2
- Leopold – Weber3:22
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos5:19
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Wyman – Wallace – Smith2:55
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly4:54
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Wyman – Pyatt – Wallace3:24
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman15:27
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Clark – Lee7:53
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Mikkelson – Aulie3:35
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).