Mon, Jan 21, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 16 | 09 | 220 |
| TOR | 013 | 08 | 114 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:51BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 18:18TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Michael Kostka, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 2:34BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:34TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:34TORJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:34BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:11BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:24BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P1 14:45BUFTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:01BUFSteve Ott: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 7:06TORCarl Gunnarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:40BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:40TORPhil Kessel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:13BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15TORClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min
- P2 17:49BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:49TORMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:30TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:41TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:41BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:14BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson11:30
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno8:07
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Grigorenko7:19
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera14:37
xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Regehr – Myers11:06
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer12:13
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Orr – McClement – Brown3:52
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri8:58
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak10:07
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:23
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Liles – Gunnarsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka11:52
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Liles – Phaneuf3:12
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).