Thu, Feb 14, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 113 | 214 | 439 |
| TBL | 16 | 012 | 212 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:23TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:09WSHEric FehrAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 2:22WSHEric FehrAssists: Mathieu Perreault, John Carlson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 7:29WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: Jeff Schultz, Tomas Kundratek · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 12:02TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 16:47TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:42TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:07WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P1 9:07WSHMatt Hendricks: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:07TBLKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:29WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Crabb – Beagle6:20
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom15:29
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Perreault9:19
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ovechkin14:09
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carlson18:37
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 28–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Kundratek8:56
xG 0.80–0.57 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Green – Alzner21:56
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 21–25goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot7:28
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Thompson8:36
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher7:37
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos2:01
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman17:10
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Brewer – Lee2:13
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle14:28
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).