Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 05 | 15 | 114 |
| TBL | 14 | 116 | 05 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Cory Conacher · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:15TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 16:52BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Marcus Foligno, Brian Flynn · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:43TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:43TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:43BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:26BUFSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:41TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13BUFRobyn Regehr: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:13TBLKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:13BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:42BUFMike Weber: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:28BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:46TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:05BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Vanek – Leino – Ennis6:37
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Gerbe8:14
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Foligno – Flynn7:31
xG 0.16–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Ott – Pominville – Hodgson7:48
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Pysyk9:10
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers2:39
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Leopold – Myers2:59
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Purcell – Tyrell3:54
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Palat4:19
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos8:40
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Purcell – Johnson – Palat2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas3:24
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle10:11
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Carle – Aulie2:58
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).