Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
65%
11%
9%
15%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Hecht–Kaleta–Gerbe | Ott–Pominville–Hodgson | Porter–Foligno–Flynn | Vanek–Leino–Ennis | Hecht–Leino–Ennis | Pominville–Vanek–Hodgson | Hecht–Porter–Flynn | Ehrhoff–Weber | Regehr–Myers | Leopold–Pysyk | Leopold–Myers | Ehrhoff–Myers | Ehrhoff–Pysyk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis–Killorn–Stamkos | 2:150.06–0.00 | 1:000.01–0.02 | 2:060.00–0.00 | 0:590.00–0.05 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:410.06–0.00 | 3:050.07–0.02 | 1:520.07–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.05 | 0:570.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | ||
| Johnson–Panik–Palat | 0:390.09–0.00 | 0:360.02–0.00 | 1:510.04–0.01 | 1:300.01–0.01 | 0:390.09–0.00 | 0:470.02–0.00 | 0:550.02–0.01 | ||||||
| Thompson–Purcell–Tyrell | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:340.02–0.00 | 0:380.10–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 1:540.12–0.00 | 1:360.15–0.02 | |||||||
| Pouliot–Pyatt–Conacher | 0:550.00–0.06 | 1:060.00–0.06 | 0:510.00–0.02 | 1:100.00–0.06 | 0:500.00–0.06 | 0:510.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Purcell–Johnson–Palat | 1:520.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Thompson–Pouliot–Tyrell | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.05 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.05 | |||||||||
| St. Louis–Thompson–Stamkos | 1:200.00–0.00 | 1:200.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| St. Louis–Purcell–Johnson | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.01 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.01 | |||||||||
| Pyatt–Tyrell–Palat | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Thompson–Killorn–Stamkos | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Thompson–Tyrell–Palat | 0:480.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Brewer–Carle | 1:200.00–0.06 | 3:150.03–0.07 | 1:510.02–0.01 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 2:520.01–0.08 | 2:270.02–0.01 | 2:100.15–0.07 | 1:040.13–0.00 | ||||
| Salo–Hedman | 1:130.00–0.00 | 2:370.00–0.00 | 2:400.07–0.12 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | 3:080.07–0.08 | 2:220.00–0.00 | 2:390.00–0.14 | 0:360.10–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | |||
| Brewer–Gudas | 0:380.06–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.05 | 1:440.01–0.00 | 1:050.06–0.00 | 1:240.07–0.00 | 1:170.01–0.09 | 0:460.00–0.01 | ||||||
| Aulie–Gudas | 0:510.24–0.00 | 1:500.00–0.00 | 0:510.24–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Carle–Aulie | 1:530.00–0.00 | 0:460.10–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 1:130.10–0.00 | |||||||||
| Hedman–Gudas | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Carle–Hedman | 1:060.00–0.02 | 0:370.02–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.02 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:400.02–0.00 | ||||||||
| Carle–Gudas | 1:090.09–0.00 | 0:390.09–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Brewer–Aulie | 0:510.00–0.02 | 0:510.00–0.02 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Christian EhrhoffBUF | 26 | 26:59 | 1:02 | 2:24 | 4 | 4 |
 Matt CarleTBL | 23 | 24:04 | 1:03 | 1:46 | 4 | 1 |
 Sami SaloTBL | 25 | 22:13 | 0:53 | 1:46 | 3 | 5 |
 Eric BrewerTBL | 23 | 22:03 | 0:58 | 2:28 | 3 | 3 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 21 | 21:31 | 1:01 | 2:05 | 6 | 4 |
 Martin St. LouisTBL | 22 | 21:28 | 0:59 | 2:05 | 4 | 3 |
 Jason PominvilleBUF | 21 | 20:50 | 1:00 | 2:24 | 4 | 4 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 24 | 20:37 | 0:52 | 1:33 | 2 | 3 |
 Tyler MyersBUF | 26 | 20:16 | 0:47 | 1:27 | 3 | 2 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 22 | 19:48 | 0:54 | 1:53 | 6 | 4 |
 Steve OttBUF | 21 | 19:22 | 0:55 | 2:24 | 4 | 2 |
 Tyler EnnisBUF | 19 | 19:17 | 1:01 | 2:24 | 6 | 2 |
 Jordan LeopoldBUF | 23 | 19:07 | 0:50 | 1:23 | 3 | 3 |
 Cody HodgsonBUF | 19 | 18:53 | 1:00 | 2:00 | 2 | 5 |
 Nate ThompsonTBL | 23 | 18:20 | 0:48 | 1:26 | 2 | 4 |
 Robyn RegehrBUF | 22 | 16:58 | 0:46 | 1:27 | 1 | 5 |
 Mike WeberBUF | 21 | 16:35 | 0:47 | 1:44 | 1 | 5 |
 Ville LeinoBUF | 17 | 16:06 | 0:57 | 1:31 | 3 | 0 |
 Radko GudasTBL | 18 | 15:38 | 0:52 | 1:49 | 1 | 5 |
 Dana TyrellTBL | 18 | 15:21 | 0:51 | 2:01 | 1 | 3 |
 Ondrej PalatTBL | 21 | 15:19 | 0:44 | 1:19 | 2 | 4 |
 Teddy PurcellTBL | 16 | 14:54 | 0:56 | 1:46 | 4 | 2 |
 Tyler JohnsonTBL | 24 | 14:50 | 0:37 | 1:17 | 4 | 4 |
 Mark PysykBUF | 18 | 14:06 | 0:47 | 1:21 | 1 | 1 |
 Thomas VanekBUF | 12 | 13:29 | 1:07 | 2:24 | 5 | 0 |
 Marcus FolignoBUF | 14 | 12:28 | 0:53 | 1:04 | 1 | 1 |
 Jochen HechtBUF | 16 | 11:52 | 0:45 | 1:02 | 2 | 1 |
 Kevin PorterBUF | 15 | 11:34 | 0:46 | 1:13 | 1 | 3 |
 Brian FlynnBUF | 15 | 11:16 | 0:45 | 1:04 | 1 | 3 |
 Patrick KaletaBUF | 18 | 11:03 | 0:37 | 1:10 | 1 | 3 |
 Richard PanikTBL | 14 | 10:51 | 0:47 | 1:25 | 2 | 3 |
 Nathan GerbeBUF | 14 | 10:30 | 0:45 | 1:02 | 1 | 0 |
 Tom PyattTBL | 15 | 10:29 | 0:42 | 1:48 | 0 | 1 |
 Keith AulieTBL | 12 | 9:13 | 0:46 | 1:41 | 1 | 3 |
 Benoit PouliotTBL | 13 | 9:03 | 0:42 | 1:29 | 0 | 0 |
 Cory ConacherTBL | 10 | 6:20 | 0:38 | 1:05 | 1 | 0 |