Wed, Apr 24, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 113 | 09 | 228 |
| TBL | 07 | 29 | 310 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:03TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nate Thompson, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:48TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:36TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:13TBLRadko GudasGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 13:08TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Keith Aulie, Dana Tyrell · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 17:11TBLMartin St. LouisENAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:14TBLTeddy Purcell: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:13TBLTom Pyatt: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02TORClarke MacArthur: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:59TORMark Fraser: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:22
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri7:52
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Frattin – Colborne8:06
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak3:37
xG 0.11–0.19 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser12:32
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Gunnarsson – Kostka2:48
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Kostka15:56
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Pyatt – Tyrell6:14
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Labrie10:58
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos13:50
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Killorn – Panik11:02
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas11:35
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Brewer – Carle17:18
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Salo – Hedman15:22
xG 0.35–0.81 (30%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).