Sat, Oct 26, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 113 | 13 | 222 |
| TBL | 112 | 015 | 212 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 12:58BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Cody McCormick, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 12:46BUFThomas VanekAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 14:09TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 15:55TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:16BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:58BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:38TBLB.J. Crombeen: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47BUFSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P2 2:41BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:03BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:00TBLNate Thompson: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:00BUFHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Foligno – Grigorenko8:22
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McCormick – Leino – Flynn3:55
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- McCormick – Stafford – Leino3:29
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Hodgson – Flynn5:34
xG 0.06–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Pysyk15:33
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Ristolainen10:21
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Myers – Zadorov11:42
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Johnson – Palat8:43
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos2:35
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Panik5:41
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos6:59
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman7:25
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:33
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Carle – Barberio3:51
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).