Wed, Oct 30, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 08 | 27 | 422 |
| CGY | 015 | 120 | 18 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 19:56TORJames van RiemsdykSHAssists: Jay McClement · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 17:03CGYMatt StajanAssists: Curtis Glencross, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 5:59TORMason RaymondGWGAssists: David Clarkson · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 14:39CGYDavid JonesAssists: Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:38TORPaul RangerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:22TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:22CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:51CGYDennis Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:19TORDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:16TORDave Bolland: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:22TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
- P2 16:56TORCarter Ashton: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:56TORCarter Ashton: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:56CGYShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:56CGYShane O'Brien: Instigator2 min
- P2 16:56CGYShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:54TORDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:00TORDavid Clarkson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Bolland – Raymond10:56
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri12:38
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- McClement – Lupul – Ashton6:47
xG 0.09–0.94 (9%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:54
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
- Franson – Rielly15:20
xG 0.33–0.92 (27%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
- Ranger – Gardiner14:32
xG 0.47–1.37 (25%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Glencross12:29
xG 1.72–0.39 (82%)attempts 24–13goals 2–0
- Hudler – Baertschi – Monahan10:21
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Galiardi – Colborne14:55
xG 0.42–0.36 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Brodie16:18
xG 1.50–0.45 (77%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell16:51
xG 1.25–0.51 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Smith5:41
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).