Sun, Nov 1, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 214 | 27 | 431 |
| CAR | 16 | 011 | 218 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:07CAREric StaalPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:38TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:54TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 4:07TBLJT BrownAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 9:16TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 15:25CARKris VersteegAssists: Victor Rask · Snap, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 19:59CARJordan StaalAssists: Victor Rask, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:57CARKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 17:35CARBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:36CARBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:54CARNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:43TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Namestnikov – Brown3:05
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Condra – Namestnikov4:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Palat9:35
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov3:07
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:39
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sustr12:45
xG 0.28–0.42 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Carle – Garrison16:04
xG 0.58–0.94 (38%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Staal – McGinn6:44
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Versteeg – Rask11:53
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- McClement – Terry – Malone4:23
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm10:59
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Hanifin11:29
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce14:35
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Faulk15:47
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).