Mon, Mar 28, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 04 | 211 | 220 |
| DET | 112 | 19 | 18 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:32DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 9:05DETRiley SheahanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 17:00DETLuke GlendeningENGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–3
- P3 17:10BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Brian Gionta, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:11BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Casey Nelson, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:21BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:47BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:27DETBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:09BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:44BUFMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:15BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P3 11:31DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Reinhart – Eichel5:10
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Moulson – Fasching3:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Fasching2:08
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Reinhart – Eichel2:47
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Nelson8:02
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe14:33
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:37
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin9:55
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan7:16
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Richards – Glendening – Athanasiou4:19
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Mantha7:18
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser13:47
xG 0.79–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Green9:46
xG 0.33–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Green – DeKeyser2:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).