Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 14 | 19 | 02 | 321 |
| CGY | 115 | 08 | 26 | 15 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 16:12CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 11:41BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 1:10CGYMicheal FerlandUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:49BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Brian Gionta, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:52CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:26CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:12BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P1 18:33BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P2 4:24BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P2 4:24BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:27CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:44CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:02CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:24BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:24BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:24CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:05BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Girgensons – Baptiste4:30
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson8:55
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Moulson – Grant – Deslauriers4:18
xG 0.01–0.05 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Baptiste2:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Ristolainen2:38
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Franson – Kulikov12:32
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen10:06
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 2–12goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bouma8:34
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Ferland5:40
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Bennett2:17
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Gaudreau – Monahan5:59
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Kulak13:19
xG 1.48–0.11 (93%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Giordano – Brodie14:31
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton11:26
xG 0.15–0.61 (19%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).