Sat, Mar 11, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 06 | 015 | 234 |
| TBL | 012 | 210 | 112 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:32FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:13FLAMark PysykAssists: Reilly Smith, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 3:43TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:11TBLYanni GourdeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 17:37TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Andrej Sustr · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:59TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:59FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:27FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P1 14:22TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58TBLGabriel Dumont: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:58FLAKeith Yandle: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:58FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:17FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:17FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:17FLAAlexander Petrovic: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 6:35FLAColton Sceviour: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:35TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24TBLLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:28TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:06TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:51FLADerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Smith – Barkov11:33
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Jokinen – Malgin3:37
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Sceviour – Bjugstad4:36
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Vanek – Bjugstad2:04
xG 0.01–0.03 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers10:52
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad3:54
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Demers – Pysyk6:52
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Drouin10:07
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Peca – Brown – Erne7:23
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:36
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Garrison9:19
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Dotchin12:54
xG 0.33–0.50 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr9:38
xG 0.10–0.49 (16%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).